This week's NFL prop bets feature one running back, one tight end and one wide receiver.
The pregame narrative: Justin Jefferson is worth fading right now thanks to the thoroughly concerning quarterback play happening in Minnesota. On a brighter note, I expect Trey McBride to remain a standout weapon for the Arizona Cardinals after back-to-back monster weeks.
Check out my top NFL Week 12 prop bets, featuring a prediction on Browns tailback Quinshon Judkins.
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NFL Week 12 prop bets
Best bet: Judkins over 70.5 rushing yards (-112)
How can the Cleveland Browns ease Shedeur Sanders into his first action as an NFL starter?
By drawing up a boatload of running plays for fellow rookie Quinshon Judkins.
Set to make his 10th NFL start, Judkins has been a dependable lead back with 171 touches and zero fumbles.
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Judkins' 3.9 yards per attempt isn't impressive, but he doesn't have much of an offensive line to work with. The second-round tailback averages 3.0 yards after contact, which ranks in the 71st percentile, per Rotowire.
With enough touches, this line shouldn't be a problem for Judkins. And I expect him to see a lot of work to make Sanders' job easier.
Judkins' rush attempts line is set at 18.5 for Sunday. In his five games with 18+ carries, Judkins is 5-0 vs. this prop while averaging 89.0 rushing yards.
It might be a death by a thousand paper cuts, but I expect Judkins to chip away at the Raiders and ultimately cash this bet.
Key stat: Since Week 7, the Raiders have allowed the fourth-highest rushing success rate, per RBSDM.com.
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Best NFL picks
McBride over 76.5 receiving yards (-117): McBride is an absolute beast. The Jacksonville Jaguars surely know that, but I don't think there's much they can do about it.
Jacksonville allows 69.4 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, which is the third-most in the NFL. That average falls below this total, but McBride is so much more than an average TE.
Through 10 games, McBride leads all NFL tight ends in receptions (71) and yards (718). He has seven more catches and 87 more yards than any of his contemporaries.
And just look at what McBride has gotten up to the past two weeks:
- Week 11: 10 catches, 115 yards, 1 TD
- Week 10: 9 catches, 127 yards, 1 TD
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The floor for McBride is exceptional, too. He has at least five catches and seven targets in every game.
McBride is basically a WR1, and that's especially true with Marvin Harrison Jr. (illness) ruled out again.
Jefferson under 67.5 receiving yards (-113): I want a way to fade J.J. McCarthy, and here it is.
McCarthy has struggled to connect with his top target so far, and those struggles should continue at Lambeau Field on Sunday.
- In McCarthy's five starts, Jefferson is averaging 54.0 yards and is 4-1 to the under on this prop.
- It's not for a lack of trying, as Jefferson has averaged 8.6 targets in those games. With a lot of uncatchable balls mixed in, the All-Pro wideout has only converted that into 4.4 catches/game.
Minnesota has a solid backfield tandem in Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. After how the New York Giants ran against the Green Bay Packers last week — posting 142 yards and three TDs on the ground — I could see the Vikings taking a similar approach.
Green Bay's defence ranks 10th in dropback success rate and 15th in rushing success rate, so attacking the unit on the ground has generally been a better strategy.
NFL prop bets made at 3:19 p.m. ET on Nov. 20, 2025.
