This week's NFL best bets feature two MVP-winning quarterbacks and a prediction from the NFL's Sunday morning game in Spain.
The Week 11 narrative: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have some work to do if they want to top their respective divisions. Allen's Buffalo Bills are in good shape to win as home favourites, while Jackson's Baltimore Ravens should lean on the passing attack in Cleveland.
Check out our NFL Week 11 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend, including props bet on Jaylen Waddle and Bijan Robinson.
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NFL Week 11 best bets
These NFL Week 11 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Jordan Horrobin, Chris Toman and Avery Perri.
Bills -5.5 (-110): This feels like a must-win game for Buffalo if it wants to claw back into the divisional race.
The Bills (6-3) are 2.5 games back of the New England Patriots (8-2), with the latter favoured by 14 points on Thursday Night Football.
We saw some confounding play out of Josh Allen last week in Miami, but I think he's capable of putting on a show in Orchard Park, where the Bills are nearly unbeatable.
- Buffalo is 22-3 at home since the beginning of the 2023-24 season.
- In that span, it has a +12.6 average margin of victory at Highmark Stadium.
- The Bills are 12-1 SU against NFC teams since the 2020 season (6-0 since 2023-24). That includes an eight-point win against the Buccaneers in 2023.
Tampa Bay has lost two of its past three games and is struggling to move the ball on offence with Bucky Irving and Mike Evand sidelined.
Buffalo should put up a boatload of points, and I can't see Baker Mayfield keeping pace with his depleted offensive corps.
-Perri
Seahawks vs. Rams ATS prediction
Seahawks +3 (-113): It's tough to bet against either the Rams or Seahawks right now, as both teams sit at 7-2 (SU and ATS) to this point.
Here's how even they are:
- Both teams rank inside the top five in scoring offence and defence.
- Their two losses apiece came in one-score games.
- Both teams are on four-game win streaks in which they've won each game by at least eight points.
With how close they are on paper, I'd rank bank a field goal with the Seahawks. Yes, they're on the road, but that hasn't been an issue for this team in recent history.
Since the start of last season, Seattle is 11-1-0 SU and 8-3-1 ATS as the visiting team.
-Horrobin
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NFL Week 11 best bets: Player props
Jackson 200+ passing yards (-134): This line is simply too low for a player of Jackson's calibre.
- The two-time MVP averaged 229.9 (2023-24) and 245.4 passing yards (2024-25) in his last two seasons.
- That includes four games against the Browns, where he averaged 228.8 yards and went 3-1 against this line. Jackson also threw for 225 yards against Cleveland in Week 2 this year.
Cleveland has a strong defence, led by six-time all-pro EDGE Myles Garrett, but it is mainly elite at stopping the run. The unit ranks second in EPA per rush and 14th in EPA per pass.
Derrick Henry hasn't been as efficient as in years past, and he only had 23 rushing yards against the Browns in Week 2.
I expect Baltimore will lean on its passing game, and wouldn't be surprised to see Jackson finish with over 250 yards.
-> Bet on Jackson vs. the Browns!
-Perri
Waddle 80+ receiving yards (-105): Waddle has been feasting as the WR1 for the Miami Dolphins, and I expect more of the same in a Grade-A matchup on Sunday morning in Madrid, Spain.
The Dolphins face the Washington Commanders, who’ve rolled out a pitiful pass defence this year:
- 32nd in yards per attempt
- 32nd in EPA per dropback
- 31st in total passing yards
- 27th in dropback success rate
In addition to being a standout matchup, this line is worth playing based on Waddle’s recent output.
From Week 5 onward, Waddle is 5-1 vs. this yardage milestone.
On the season, Waddle has obtained 41.6% of Miami’s air yards, which ranks in the 98th percentile, per Rotowire. He’s also in the 80th percentile or better in target share and yards per route.
-Horrobin
Week 11 player prop prediction
Robinson 70+ rushing yards (-125): If not done already, the Atlanta Falcons' disappointing season is on the line in Week 11.
As a home favourite against a divisional rival, I expect Atlanta (3-6) to at least put together a competitive showing after getting embarrassed 30-0 by the Carolina Panthers in Week 3.
Better game script than what Robinson saw in that defeat should help the slumping star build off his Week 10 performance.
While he didn't find the end zone and was non-existent in the passing game in a back-and-forth OT loss to the Indianapolis Colts, Robinson was productive on the ground.
- Robinson rushed for 84 yards, averaging 4.9 yards per carry after being held under 50 yards and 4.0 YPC in three straight games.
- Despite being limited to 13 carries in that ugly Week 3 loss, Robinson rushed for 72 yards and torched Carolina in both meetings a season ago.
- His upside is clear. Robinson topped 90 rushing yards in nine of his final 12 games last season, and started the year by clearing this line in four of five games.
The last three lead backs to face the Panthers — Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs and James Cook — blew past this number.
-Toman
NFL Week 11 best bets made at 2 p.m. ET on 11/05/2025.
