J.K. Dobbins is off to a nice start this season with the Denver Broncos, and he's my top NFL TD pick for Week 8.
The pregame narrative: Dobbins faces the sieve-like Dallas Cowboys defence at home and is worth a look even on the wrong side of plus money. Elsewhere, Xavier Hutchinson is a compelling flier within the Houston Texans' depleted receiving corps.
Check out my top Week 8 NFL TD picks, featuring a pick on Indianapolis Colts receiver Michael Pittman.
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NFL TD picks: Week 8
Best bet: Dobbins to score (-122)
The highest projected total of the week comes in the Cowboys vs. Broncos game, which has a lot to do with Dallas' top-ranked scoring offence and 30th-ranked scoring defence.
Backing Dobbins to score is a pretty square play. But based on his matchup and current usage, I don't mind the price.
Let's start by looking at the matchup vs. Dallas:
- The Cowboys have allowed the third-most rushing yards and the seventh-highest yards per carry.
- According to RBSDM.com, there are only six NFL defences allowing a positive EPA per rush. Dallas is one of them.
- The Cowboys are also allowing an NFL-worst rush success rate (49.5%).
-> Bet on J.K.Dobbins' rushing props vs. the Cowboys
Now on to how Dobbins is deployed, which should be an encouraging sight for any TD bettor.
In his first season with the Broncos, Dobbins has commanded more than twice as many touches — and nearly twice as many snaps — as his understudy, R.J. Harvey.
Dobbins has at least one red zone carry in all seven games. He's also out-touching Harvey inside the 10-yard line, 9-2 (per Fantasy Pros).
Though he failed to score last week thanks to quarterback Bo Nix pilfering a pair of red zone rushing TDs, Dobbins remains a consistently likely TD option.
Key stat: Through seven games, the Cowboys have allowed seven rushing TDs inside the 10-yard line.
-> Don't miss out — Bet on NFL Week 8!
Best NFL touchdown bets
Pittman to score (+155): The Colts are favoured by two touchdowns against the miserable Titans, and there are plenty of players who could find the end zone.
Assuming I can't interest you in Jonathan Taylor's -400 odds, why don't we dive in on why Pittman is a solid option?
- Pittman has a TD in five of seven games.
- In Week 3, Pittman caught all six of his targets vs. Tennessee for 73 yards and a touchdown.
- Pittman has eight red zone targets (second on the Colts) and has been targeted inside the five-yard line in three of the past four games.
The Titans have been particularly atrocious against the run. But if they sell out to stop Taylor, Pittman is typically Indy's first or second look in the passing game.
Hutchinson to score (+255): Entering the final practice day of the week (Friday), neither Nico Collins nor Christian Kirk had practiced yet for the Texans.
Both players are trending toward a Week 8 absence, or at least some limitations if they do see the field.
So ... who does that leave in the passing game? A very young group of wideouts, headlined by Hutchinson.
Based on snap share, Hutchinson has been a top-two WR for the Texans in five of six games this season. He hasn't gotten a ton of looks, but he did log a season-high four targets last week when Collins exited with a concussion.
Also of note, Hutchinson has been targeted inside the five-yard line in back-to-back games.
There's ample risk here, but the upside of being Houston's WR1 at home on Sunday has my interest.
NFL TD picks made at 11:35 a.m. ET on 10/24/2025.
