A pair of tight ends headline this week's NFL TD picks.
The pregame narrative: George Kittle has a good chance to find the end zone in what should be a blowout victory for the San Francisco 49ers. Elsewhere, I'm loving the value on Dalton Kincaid when the Buffalo Bills battle the New England Patriots.
Check out my top NFL Week 15 TD picks, featuring a pick on Quinshon Judkins.
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NFL Week 15 TD picks
Best bet: Kittle to score (+104)
I'm excited to see what offensive game plan Kyle Shanahan will cook up against the Tennessee Titans with an extra week of prep.
It should be a five-course meal, and hopefully one dish involves Kittle finding the end zone.
The tight end has been consistent this season, posting some solid stats in his seven healthy games:
- 396 yards (56.6/game)
- 37 catches (5.2/game)
- 5 touchdowns
Kittle is also averaging 70.6 receiving yards and seven targets a game since Brock Purdy returned from injury in Week 11 — a nice uptick in production.
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The Titans are the worst team in the NFL, and their recent win over the Browns doesn't change that.
Tennessee allows the fourth-most points per game (27.5), and has the sixth-worst defensive EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.
Kittle should help San Francisco cover a lofty 12-point spread.
Key stat: Kittle has scored 10 touchdowns in his last 17 games with Purdy under centre.
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NFL Week 15 touchdown bets
Kincaid to score (+255): Kincaid returned to Buffalo's lineup last week and immediately contributed, catching four of five targets for 41 yards and a score.
The third-year tight end now has five TDs in nine games while averaging a career-best 54.3 yards per game.
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One of Kincaid's best games this season came against the New England Patriots, who Buffalo plays on Sunday, even though he didn't find the end zone.
He caught all six of his targets for 108 yards in the defeat.
Buffalo's wide receiver room is inconsistent at best, and tight ends have been the one position group able to exploit New England's defence this year.
The Pats have given up the seventh-most receptions (79) and 12th-most receiving yards (789) to TEs this year.
Judkins to score (+112): Betting on any Cleveland Brown to find the end zone is risky, and it's not like Judkins has been super efficient lately.
But the tailback has a bell cow workload and draws an A-plus matchup against the Chicago Bears.
- Judkins has 210 carries this year. The rest of Cleveland's RB room has 71 combined.
- From Week 3 onward, Judkins has 17 carries inside the 10-yard line. The rest of Cleveland's RB room has two.
- Chicago's defence ranks 28th in rush success rate and 30th in yards per rush (5.1).
I'm also more bullish than usual on Cleveland's offence after Shedeur Sanders had nearly 400 all-purpose yards and four scores last week.
Judkins has seven rushing touchdowns on the season, and I think he can add to that total on Sunday.
NFL TD picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on Dec. 12, 2025.
