The NFL's conference championship doubleheader is a great time to cook up a parlay, and I've got a +441 ticket with predictions from both games.
The pregame narrative: In the AFC title match, the New England Patriots are rightful road favourites and should get the job done against an unproven, bench-warming quarterback. On the NFC side, look for Matthew Stafford to throw a boatload of passes in an effort to guide the Los Angeles Rams back to the Super Bowl.
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Check out my NFL playoff parlay picks, featuring predictions on Courtland Sutton and Kenneth Walker.
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NFL playoff parlay picks
SGP: Patriots ML | Sutton 40+ rec. yards | Walker anytime TD | Stafford 35+ pass attempts (+441)
Patriots moneyline (-240): The Denver Broncos hung on for an overtime victory last week, but they lost their starting quarterback in the process. Enter, Jarrett Stidham.
Stidham, a career backup who was drafted by the Patriots in 2019, hasn't attempted an NFL pass since the final two weeks of the 2023 season. And that was only because Denver's season was already cooked.
The 29-year-old has been in Denver for all three years with Sean Payton at the helm, so I'm sure he'll have a firm understanding of the game plan for Sunday. But execution is a different thing entirely.
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New England is 15-1 since Week 4, with nine multi-score victories in that span.
Both teams have top-five scoring defences, but the QB discrepancy between Stidham and Drake Maye is huge. Let's all mentally prepare for the Patriots to be back in the Super Bowl.
AFC championship prediction: Courtland Sutton prop
Sutton 40+ receiving yards (-215): The underdog Broncos will likely be in some obvious passing situations, and I expect them to give Sutton every chance to make his mark.
Last week, Sutton brought in four catches for 53 yards. That's not as much as Denver fans might've hoped for on nine targets, but it's something.
Excluding Week 18, when the Broncos skated to victory against a Los Angeles Chargers squad that was playing its bench players, Sutton is 7-0 vs. this yardage milestone in his past seven games.
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The 6-foot-4 WR1 will likely have to put up with Pro Bowl cornerback Christian Gonzalez at least some of the time. But if a steady flow of targets continue coming Sutton's way, I'm not too worried.
Entering Sunday, Sutton has seen at least nine targets in five of his past six games (Week 18 was the exception).
NFC championship prediction: Kenneth Walker prop
Walker to score (-177): For most of the season, Zach Charbonnet was a touchdown vulture in the Seahawks' backfield.
Both sides of the Walker/Charbonnet tandem garnered 200+ touches during the regular season, but Walker finished with 435 more scrimmage yards.
And yet Charbonnet lapped him in the touchdown count, 12-5.
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Now that Charbonnet is out for the year with a knee injury, Walker should have almost the entire allotment of RB touches to himself — including the goal line work.
Walker was a star against the Rams in the regular season, posting 110+ scrimmage yards and a touchdown in both games.
NFL playoff parlay picks: Matthew Stafford prop
Stafford 35+ pass attempts (-134): In crunch time, the Rams have kept the ball in the hands of their MVP candidate. I think that's pretty easy to understand.
In the first All-Pro season of his lengthy career, Stafford led the NFL in passing yards (4,707) and posted a 46:8 TD-to-INT ratio.
Stafford's efficiency has lacked in the playoffs, but he has earned the right to drop back and chuck it pretty much as many times as he wants.
- In his past six games, Stafford is 6-0 vs. this prop while averaging 41.5 pass attempts. That includes a season-best performance in Week 16 in Seattle: 457 yards and three TDs on 29-of-49 passing.
During the regular season, the Seahawks' opponents attempted 35.3 passes per game.
NFL playoff parlay picks made at 12:35 p.m. on Jan. 22, 2025.
