Rhamondre Stevenson has revived his role with the New England Patriots, making him a compelling target in Sunday's NFL conference championship prop markets.
NFL prop bets narrative: Stevenson isn't exactly a workhorse, but he's doing a lot with the touches he gets — especially compared to his contemporary. While Stevenson looks to make his mark in the AFC title game, find out why I like Puka Nacua to ball out in the NFC championship.
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Check out my top NFL conference championship prop picks, featuring a prediction on Denver Broncos tight end Evan Engram.
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NFL conference championship prop picks
Best bet: Stevenson over 69.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115)
When the Patriots spent a second-round pick on TreVeyon Henderson this past spring, it was easy to envision him rising to the top of the team's running back depth chart.
Sure enough, Henderson seized his opportunity when Stevenson was sidelined with an injury for Weeks 9-11.
Even after the fifth-year vet returned, Henderson continued to lead the charge. From Weeks 12-18, with both backs healthy, Henderson out-carried Stevenson, 80-47.
Things have flipped in the postseason, though. And at a time of year where any snap could decide your season, it's best to ride the hot hand.
Take a look at how New England's RB tandem has been used so far in the playoffs:
- Stevenson: 26 carries for 123 yards (4.7 yards/attempt), seven catches for 86 yards
- Henderson: 21 carries for 52 yards (2.5 yards/attempt), two catches for seven yards
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In terms of rushing work, the volume has been similar. But Stevenson is providing much more of a spark.
And in the receiving game, Stevenson is clearly the preferred option out of the backfield. Henderson only has three total catches in his past five games, while Stevenson has gone seven straight games with at least two catches.
Denver's defence is tough to crack, given that the team ranked third in scoring and second in yards this season. I wouldn't expect either tailback to have a banner day.
But Stevenson deserves to see the bulk of the work for New England right now, and his stable floor as a pass-catcher is a real plus.
Key stat: Stevenson is 7-0 vs. this scrimmage yards prop in his past seven games, averaging 99.8 yards on 12.7 touches in that span.
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Engram 3+ catches (+106): Denver quarterback Jarrett Stidham hasn't thrown a meaningful NFL pass (regular season or playoffs) since 2023. So it's fair to feel quite uncertain about what he's bringing to the table on Sunday.
In situations like this, I like to see if there's a logical safety valve option in the offence. Someone who an inexperienced or out-of-practice quarterback can find for shorter, safer completions.
Engram has had some issues with drops this year, but I still think he fits the bill.
- According to RotoWire, Engram ranks in the 76th percentile in team target share (13.0%) and the 79th percentile in target rate on routes run (22.2%).
- Engram's average depth of target is just 4.5 yards, which ranks in the 26th percentile. So most of his looks aren't particularly far from the line of scrimmage and should be more easily completed.
- On the season, Engram is averaging 3.0 catches on 4.6 targets. None of those passes came from Stidham, mind you, but he's seen his fair share of looks throughout the year.
Opposing tight ends hauled in 5.7 catches per game against New England during the regular season, which was the 11th-most in the NFL.
Puka Nacua prop prediction: NFC title game
Nacua over 7.5 catches (-120): With the obscene target share he demands, I think this is a great line to buy in on Nacua.
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- Nacua has 10+ targets in seven consecutive games. He's averaging 8.3 catches and 123.3 yards in that span.
- During the regular season, Nacua led the NFL in receptions (129). That equates to 8.1 catches per game.
The first-time All-Pro receiver is a matchup problem for even the best defences. Just ask the Seattle Seahawks, whose defence ranks No. 2 in net yards per attempt.
When Nacua played in Seattle in Week 16, he exploded for 12 catches, 225 yards and two TDs on 16 targets.
With 28 targets through two playoff games, how could I not buy in?
NFL conference championship prop picks made at 3:13 p.m. ET on Jan. 20, 2026.
