Matthew Stafford has a chance to put a real dent in his former team's playoff hopes when the Los Angeles Rams host the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: Detroit (8-5) will be in great shape to at least land a wild-card spot with a win ... but a loss would put the Lions on thin ice. Stafford's Rams enter their Week 15 matchup as the NFC's No. 1 seed, but their lead in the NFC West isn't safe.
Check out my Lions vs. Rams SGP predictions, featuring picks on Jahmyr Gibbs and Puka Nacua.
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Lions vs. Rams predictions
SGP: Rams -2.5 | Nacua 90+ receiving yards | Gibbs to score (+325)
Rams -2.5 (-210): SoFi Stadium is often dogged for not providing as much of a home-field advantage as other stadiums, thanks to the blasé reputation of the L.A. fanbase.
That doesn't seem to matter for the Rams, though.
- L.A. is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) at home this season, with a +10.3 average point differential in those games.
- Detroit, meanwhile, is 1-3 SU and ATS as a road dog, losing by seven points or more in Philadelphia, Green Bay and Kansas City.
Yes, the Lions got the better of the Rams in last year's early-season matchup (and the 2024 wild-card game before that). But both of those games were played in Detroit.
Heading west with a depleted secondary, I'm not expecting the Lions to keep this within a field goal.
Los Angeles is one of just two NFL teams that ranks in the top five in scoring on both sides of the ball.
Other SGP picks
Nacua 90+ receiving yards (-155): Nacua went nuclear last time out, and I think it's an easy argument to suggest he can do that again.
In Week 14, the Arizona Cardinals drew the short straw of trying to guard Nacua ... and it didn't go well. He amassed 167 receiving yards and two touchdowns on seven receptions.
Nacua is a stellar playmaker in the open field. His average depth of target is just 8.8 yards (29th percentile, per RotoWire), because the Rams want to get the ball in his hands quickly and watch him work.
- Last week, five of his seven receptions went for 20+ yards.
- He's second among all receivers in broken tackles (six) and 20-plus-yard catches (19), per Fantasy Pros.
- Nacua's 3.78 yards per route leads the NFL. He has 90+ yards in seven of 12 games.
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Detroit won't have its best cornerback (Terrion Arnold) or either of its starting safeties (Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph) on Sunday. This could get ugly.
Also, Davante Adams (hamstring) logged just one practice as a limited participant this week. He'll likely play, but his usage could be limited.
Gibbs to score (-200): Nacua is among the best playmakers as a wideout, but Gibbs is probably the best playmaker at any position.
Last year's NFL touchdown leader (20) is up to 16 TDs this season. And he's been on a particularly notable tear in his past seven games:
- 11 TDs
- 5 plays of 40+ yards
- 147.7 scrimmage yards/game
- 19 red zone touches
Gibbs has at least one touch inside the 10-yard line in five consecutive games. But from Week 7 onward, he also has four TDs from outside the 40.
Adding Gibbs lifts this SGP's odds from +132 to +325. I'm more than happy to do that.
Lions vs. Rams predictions made at 11:42 a.m. on Dec. 13, 2025.
