Mike Evans is expected to return for Thursday Night Football this week, and he's featured in my +340 same-game parlay.
The pregame narrative: Evans, who hasn't played since Week 7, is a top target whenever he's on the field for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With an opportunity to stay ahead in the NFC South, Tampa is a home favourite on Thursday against the Atlanta Falcons.
Check out my Falcons vs. Buccaneers SGP predictions for Dec. 11, featuring Bijan Robinson and Rachaad White.
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers predictions
SGP: White over 16.5 rush yards | Robinson 30+ rec. yards | Evans 4+ catches (+340)
White over 16.5 rushing yards (-108): Tampa's RB1 is Bucky Irving, and rightfully so. But White has a carved-out role, and this yardage total should be within his reach.
- During Irving's injury absence from Weeks 5-12, White rushed for 35+ yards every game. He ceded RB1 duties back to Irving in Week 13 and had a very quiet week, but things ticked up again last Sunday.
- In Week 14 vs. the Saints, White had 11 carries for 53 yards. That was more efficient than Irving, who turned 15 carries into 55 yards.
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White and Irving had identical snap counts last week, with 36 offensive plays apiece. And those 11 carries were a season-high for White in the six games he's played alongside Irving.
Do I think White will overtake Irving for RB1 duties? Absolutely not. But it's clear the Bucs are interested in using both tailbacks.
Sean Tucker completes Tampa's RB trio, but his usage is a distant third. He only had 21 offensive snaps over the past two weeks combined.
White isn't a flashy name, but he's utilized enough for me to want the over on his yardage prop.
Thursday Night Football SGP picks
Robinson 30+ receiving yards (-186): The Bucs bottled up Robinson in the run game in Week 1, holding him to 24 yards on 12 carries.
But he really made them pay as a receiver.
Robinson caught six passes for a season-high 100 yards and a touchdown — galloping for a 50-yard score in the first quarter.
-> Build your own SGP featuring Robinson and Evans here!
The third-year back is in the Jahmyr Gibbs tier when it comes to explosiveness in the open field. Hopefully the Falcons lean into that again on Thursday night.
Robinson is 9-4 vs. this receiving yards prop, averaging 46.3 yards per game with a career-high 10.8 yards per reception.
Evans 4+ catches (-195): It's crunch time for Tampa Bay, a team that needs to keep winning in order to extend its division title streak to five years. Enter, Evans.
Though his 1,000-yard streak is destined to end at 11 seasons, the 6-foot-5 Evans should walk back into the X receiver role for Tampa and get his fair share of looks.
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- Evans hasn't played a full game since Week 3. In the first three games of the year, he went 3-0 vs. this milestone while seeing a total of 28 targets.
- Dating back to 2021, Evans has four or more catches in six of seven games vs. Atlanta. He caught five passes for 51 yards in the season opener this year.
Evans appeared in practice all of last week and all of this week. He hasn't been rushed back, so I don't expect the Bucs to slow-roll his usage.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers predictions made at 3:10 p.m. ET on Dec. 10, 2025.
