With stakes that should resemble an elimination game, the Dallas Cowboys hit the road to face the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football in Week 14.
The pregame narrative: Dallas and Detroit are both on the bubble in the NFC playoff hunt, and their margins for error are on a razor's edge. Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) exited early last week and was a non-participant in Tuesday's practice, putting him at risk of missing this game.
Check out my Cowboys vs. Lions picks for Dec. 4, featuring a prop bet on Detroit's Jameson Williams.
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Cowboys vs. Lions picks
Best Bet: Williams 80+ receiving yards (-120)
Part of the reason I like the Cowboys to cover on Thursday is that Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) is iffy at best to play.
But St. Brown's murky status is even more elemental to my prediction on Williams, who stands to see WR1 action depending on how things shake out.
- St. Brown only played four offensive snaps last week before exiting with a low ankle sprain. In his absence, Williams enjoyed season highs in targets (10), catches (7) and yards (144).
- That marked the third time in four weeks that Williams finished with 7+ targets, 85+ yards and a touchdown.
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Whenever he's on the field, Williams is a home run waiting to happen. He had four receptions of 20+ yards last week, which is a combination of seeing deep targets and making plays after the catch.
According to RotoWire, Williams ranks in the 77th percentile in average depth of target (12.8 yards) and the 98th percentile in YAC (8.8).
In the past four weeks, Williams has eight receptions of 20+ yards. That's as many as Ja'Marr Chase has all season.
While Dallas has some solid playmakers in its front seven, the secondary is riddled with inadequate defenders. As a whole, the Cowboys allow a passer rating of 102.0 to their opponents (NFL average is 91.9).
This is a smash matchup for any receiver as dangerous as Williams — especially if there's WR1 target share available.
Key stat: The Cowboys have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers (168.0).
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TNF ATS prediction
Cowboys +3 (-112): Here come the Cowboys, with a high-octane offence and enough defensive playmakers to keep things interesting.
Dallas is on a three-game win streak, which includes victories over both reigning conference champions (Chiefs, Eagles) in a span of five days. Detroit, meanwhile, is sputtering.
- In their past five games, the Lions are 2-3 SU (1-4 ATS).
- During that stretch, Detroit never led twice (vs. Packers, at Eagles). And its two wins came against the Giants and Commanders, who have a combined record of 5-20.
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If St. Brown doesn't play (or is limited in some fashion), the Lions could be forced to lean heavier into the run game.
Detroit does love to run the football, evidenced by its top-five ranking in rushing yards, yards per attempt and TDs. But Dallas' defence looks remade with Quinnen Williams on the line, so that could be a problem.
In three weeks with Williams, Dallas' defence ranks inside the top 10 in EPA per rush and rushing success rate, according to RBSDM.com.
Dallas has the No. 2 scoring offence (29.3 PPG) and could simply out-gun Detroit. I'll happily bank a field goal against a Lions team that is on upset watch.
Cowboys vs. Lions picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET Dec. 2, 2025.
