Sunday's marquee NFL matchup takes place in Orchard Park when Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
The pregame narrative: Buffalo has had Kansas City's number in the regular season, but the Chiefs have won when it matters, going 4-0 in the playoffs during this rivalry. The Bills are home underdogs for just the third time in the last five seasons and are 35-8 straight up at Highmark Stadium in that span.
Check out my Chiefs vs. Bills SGP predictions on Nov. 2, featuring Rashee Rice and James Cook.
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Chiefs vs. Bills predictions
SGP: Chiefs moneyline | Rice anytime TD | Cook 25+ first-half rushing yards (+360)
Chiefs moneyline (-124): I won't put much stock into KC's regular season woes against Buffalo.
The Chiefs have been the better team this season and are arguably the hottest team in football over the last six weeks:
- 5-1 record
- +94 point differential
- 2nd in offensive EPA per play
- 2nd in defensive EPA per play
Kansas City has scored 28+ points in five straight games and is getting extraordinary quarterback play out of Mahomes.
The MVP frontrunner is leading the league in total touchdowns (21), is second in passing yards (2,099), and fourth in QBR (76.6).
Josh Allen is going to do Josh Allen things, but I'm confident KC can go blow-for-blow with Buffalo.
And I'm also not sold on the Bills' 5-2 record. The teams they've beaten are 11-30 combined.
-> Bet on Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen to win the MVP
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Rice to score (+100): I haven't even mentioned Rice yet, who has looked great after returning from a lengthy injury and suspension hiatus.
The speedy wideout has 16 catches and three TDs on 19 targets. He has six red zone targets in the past two weeks, which is tied with Ja'Marr Chase for No. 1 in the NFL.
That's nothing new, though. Mahomes has fed Rice the ball whenever he's been on the field:
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- Rice played three games in 2024 due to an LCL injury. He had 29 targets, 288 yards and two scores.
- In his rookie season, Rice led KC in receiving TDs (seven) and was second to Travis Kelce in receptions (79), targets (102) and yards (938).
Getting Rice at plus money seems like a steal.
Cook 25+ first-half rushing yards (-315): This feels like a safe way to gain exposure on Cook, who has been one of the best backs in the NFL this season.
Cook ranks fifth in carries (126) and second in yards (753) through seven games. I'm focusing on the first half because Buffalo will likely want to establish the run but may abandon that plan if it falls behind later in the game.
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He is 6-1 against this line, logging 21 first-half rushing yards in the outlier.
Chiefs vs. Bills predictions made at 12:25 p.m. ET 10/31/2025.
