The Denver Broncos carry their eight-game win streak into a Sunday Night Football matchup against the Washington Commanders.
The pregame narrative: Denver is coming off a bye to take on a Washington team without Jayden Daniels, who remains sidelined with an elbow injury. The Broncos are 5.5-point road favourites as of Friday afternoon and aim to keep pace for the AFC's top seed.
Check out my Broncos vs. Commanders picks for Nov. 30, featuring a prop bet on Courtland Sutton.
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Broncos vs. Commanders picks
Best Bet: Sutton 50+ receiving yards (-115)
Denver's offence hasn't turned heads this season, but this line feels disrespectfully low.
- Sutton has consistently been a favourite of Bo Nix and logged a 1,000-yard receiving season with the rookie QB at the helm last year.
- He had 50+ receiving yards in 10 of the last 11 games to close out that season (playoffs included).
- Sutton is on pace for another 1,000-yard campaign, and is 7-4 against this line so far.
The wideout commands 20.2% of the Broncos' team targets, which ranks in the 82nd percentile for all wide receivers in the NFL, per Rotowire. He also sees 82.5 air yards per game (85th percentile) with a 12.3 average depth of target (77th percentile).
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So basically, Sutton is a guy who gets a ton of looks with splash play potential. That's a recipe for success against this Commanders team.
Washington's defence ranks dead last in RBSDM.com's EPA per dropback and is allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to WRs (170.3).
Simply put, this line is too low.
Key stat: Sutton is 16-5 against this line in his last 21 games.
SNF over/under prediction
Over 43 points (-109): Denver's offence was pretty awful heading into the bye week, averaging 16.6 PPG in its final three games. The Broncos went 3-0, so naturally, the under on this total cashed with ease.
But I'm hoping the bye week gave Sean Payton enough time to right the ship. Washington's defence is sieve-like, allowing 32.5 PPG during its six-game losing streak.
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But the offence looks decent enough with long-time backup Marcus Mariota under centre.
He's accounted for eight TDs to five interceptions, and actually ranks a respectable 18th in EPA per play among QBs with 150-plus snaps.
Denver's defence has been a little shakier on the road, and I think Mariota can do enough to keep Washington in this game.
Broncos vs. Commanders picks made at 2:40 p.m. ET Nov. 28, 2025.
