The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots take part in a pivotal AFC East matchup on Sunday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: If the Patriots win, they will secure the top spot in the division with a few weeks left to play. Buffalo, on the other hand, can even the season series and stay in the race with a win on the road.
Check out my Bills vs. Patriots SGP predictions, featuring picks on Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid.
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Bills vs. Patriots predictions
SGP: Patriots +3.5 | Diggs 50+ receiving yards | Kincaid 40+ receiving yards (+375)
Patriots +3.5 (-180): I'm backing the Patriots to clinch the division in our staff's NFL best bets for Week 15, but I will take them to cover an alternate spread in this SGP. Let me explain why:
- New England already has a win over Buffalo this season, handing the Bills their only home loss so far.
- The Patriots are on a 10-game winning streak and have the NFL's best record at 11-2.
- Buffalo is a measly 3-3 away from home.
A lot of those road woes are due to Josh Allen's stats taking a serious dip. His passer rating drops almost 40 points from 119.2 at home to 82.2 on the road.
In those six away games, Allen has thrown only six touchdowns to go with his six interceptions.
And then there's the fact that the Bills always struggle against their division rival. The Patriots have won three of the past five meetings and went 5-0 ATS.
Other SGP picks
Diggs 50+ receiving yards (-121): Revenge game part two? I think so.
Diggs went off against his former team in the first matchup, hauling in 10 catches for 146 yards.
For the season, he leads Patriots wide receivers in receptions (64) and yards (705).
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New England averages the second-most passing yards per game, so I expect the Pats to make it a priority to attack through the air.
And Diggs is the WR1 on this team. No other player has more than 45 catches this season.
He's the most consistent guy out there for New England with the added motivation to stick it to his old team.
I foresee a big performance from Diggs on Sunday afternoon.
Kincaid 40+ receiving yards (-141): Kincaid is a top option for Josh Allen when healthy.
- The tight end has suited up for nine games and has 489 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
- It's the progression you want to see out of the third-year pro. His 54.3 yards per game is a career best.
Kincaid also happened to have his best game of the season vs. New England. In Week 5, he had six catches for 108 yards.
That's partly because the Patriots can fall victim to the pass. They give up 206.9 passing yards per game, which is right around league-average.
Tight ends have 79 receptions against them this season. That's tied for the seventh most in the NFL.
Everything points to Kincaid having an above-average performance.
Bills vs. Patriots predictions made at 11:52 a.m. on Dec. 12, 2025.
