Joe Burrow makes his return in the final game of this year's NFL Thanksgiving slate.
The pregame narrative: Burrow has been sidelined since Week 2 with turf toe, and will have to come out firing. The Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) need to run the table for a chance at the playoffs, and that means winning as 7-point road underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens (6-5).
Check out my Bengals vs. Ravens predictions, featuring running backs Derrick Henry and Chase Brown.
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Bengals vs. Ravens predictions
SGP: Bengals +14.5 | Henry to score | Brown under 54.5 rushing yards (+360)
Bengals +14.5 (-345): I like Cincinnati's chances of covering the standard spread, despite my two prop picks working against the Bengals.
And thanks to some negative correlation, adding this heavily-teased leg boosts the SGP from +160 to +360. Well worth it, in my opinion.
Baltimore's offence hasn't looked great since Lamar Jackson returned from injury. The typically mobile quarterback has rushed for an average of just 18 yards in the last four games.
Don't get me wrong, the Ravens should score against the Bengals' horrible defence, but I expect Burrow and Co. to return the favour.
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Joe Flacco had the Bengals averaging 27.2 PPG, and they covered this spread in all but one of his starts.
Burrow threw for nine TD passes in two games against the Ravens last year. Cincinnati lost both of those contests, but it was by a combined four points.
Expect a typical AFC North thriller.
Thanksgiving Day SGP picks
Henry to score (-215): Let's loop back on Cincinnati's defence:
- 32nd in PPG (32.7)
- 32nd in yards per game (415.8)
- 32nd in RBSDM.com's EPA per play (+0.188)
- 31st in rushing yards per game (156.0)
Baltimore should have plenty of red-zone opportunities. And with Jackson banged up, I expect Henry to get the vast majority of touches.
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The 6-foot-2, 250 pound battering ram scored two TDs last week and is sneakily up to the fifth-most rushing TDs this season (nine).
He also scored in both games against the Bengals last year.
Brown under 54.5 rushing yards (-115): Cincinnati's best route to winning this game is to attack Baltimore's secondary with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
That's partially because of how elite the WR tandem is, and partially because of how good Baltimore's run defence has been since its Week 7 bye.
The Ravens' defence ranks first in EPA per rush and second in rush success rate since then (five games).
Brown has logged over 200 rushing yards in his last two games, but he was horrible earlier this season and fell under this line in both games versus the Ravens last year.
In those contests he averaged a measly 3.52 YPA.
Bengals vs. Ravens predictions made at 1:35 p.m. on Nov. 26, 2025.
