The Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills meet on Sunday afternoon in what's expected to be an explosive game.
The pregame narrative: Josh Allen and the Bills are 5-1 at home this season, averaging 32.5 points per game. As for the Bengals, Joe Burrow made his return in Week 13 and led the offence to 32 points in a win over the Baltimore Ravens.
Check out my Bengals vs. Bills SGP predictions, featuring a pick on superstar receiver Ja'Marr Chase.
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Bengals vs. Bills predictions
SGP: Over 49.5 points | Allen over 238.5 passing yards | Chase 90+ receiving yards (+320)
Over 49.5 points (-180): The first part of this pick relies on Buffalo's home dominance. As previously mentioned, the offence cooks at Highmark Stadium, averaging north of 30 points.
That should play well against the Bengals, who allow the most points per game in the NFL (31.2).
Everything points to Buffalo scoring 30-plus on Sunday, and I think Cincy can match behind Burrow.
The quarterback attempted 46 passes in his return, leading to 261 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Burrow led the NFL in passing yards in 2024 and instantly provides a huge boost to the Bengals' offence.
This could quickly turn into a shootout between two of the best arms in the league.
Other SGP picks
Allen over 238.5 passing yards (-115): Let's get back to Cincinnati's defence.
Not only do the Bengals allow the most points per game, but they also give up the most passing yards (256.8).
Allen's Bills have been on a disappointing run, but the QB is still slinging the rock. He has cleared this line in four of the past five games.
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He also fits the team narrative of being way better at home. Allen is 4-2 against this wager in Buffalo, averaging 276.5 passing yards.
There's no doubt in my mind that he can continue the trend. This is the best matchup in the NFL for Allen to take advantage of.
Chase 90+ receiving yards (+100): Chase is going to like having his MVP-calibre QB back in the lineup.
- In Week 13, Chase was targeted 14 times, leading to seven catches and 110 yards.
- When Burrow was healthy last season, Chase put up 100.5 yards per game and scored 17 touchdowns during an all-time great receiving campaign.
The wideout hasn't been as dominant this season, but he's still recorded a very respectable 88.3 yards per game.
Most of that can be chalked up to a slow start, however. Since Week 6, Chase is 6-1 against this line.
Tee Higgins should be back in the lineup, but that doesn't concern me.
Chase has been the go-to guy with and without his teammate, and Higgins' availability only gives the Bills' defence one more thing to worry about.
Bengals vs. Bills predictions made at 3:35 p.m. on Dec. 5, 2025.
