The NBA is saving arguably its best matchup for last tonight, as the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The pregame narrative: Minnesota played last night in Dallas, which helps explain why the home team is a 7-point underdog against OKC. I'm locked in on some star power in this matchup, with a +400 SGP that features Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards.
BET FINDER: Search & Bet!
Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions for Jan. 29.
-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NBA
Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP
Parlay: Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Edwards 25+ points | Under 231.5 points (+400)
Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-180): It's still a bit flippant to say you can pencil in 30 points for Gilgeous-Alexander on a nightly basis ... but that's not a gross exaggeration.
- The NBA's reigning scoring champ (and MVP) is averaging 32.0 points this season, on track for a fourth straight year of 30.0+ PPG.
- He has 30+ points in 32 of 46 games this season.
- SGA diced up the Timberwolves in both previous matchups this season: 40 points (12-of-19 shooting) on Nov. 26, followed by 35 points (12-of-26 shooting) on Dec. 19.
-> Don't miss out — bet on Ant and SGA props now!
The Canadian superstar has the highest scoring floor in the league. He has at least 20 points in 118 straight games, which is eight shy of Wilt Chamberlain's record (set in 1963).
I almost prefer when SGA is facing a quality opponent like Minnesota. Although the T-wolves' defence will push him, that means he has a greater chance of playing a full workload and putting up enough shots for this bet to cash.
NBA SGP legs
Edwards 25+ points (-148): This is a very interesting price for a guy who's averaging 29.4 PPG. It says a lot about the respect that OKC's defence has earned.
But Edwards has faced the Thunder's superb defence (No. 1 in net rating, points allowed, and opponent FG%) twice this year. And he cashed this bet both times.
- Nov. 26: 31 points on 9-of-19 shooting (5-for-10 from 3-point range)
- Dec. 19: 26 points on 9-of-20 shooting (3-for-6 from 3-point range)
-> Bet on NBA futures at NorthStar Bets
Edwards is averaging 30.2 points over his past 12 games and is 9-3 vs. this milestone prop in that span. Look for him to put on a show at home with the defending champs in town.
Under 231.5 points (-195): Without this leg, the SGP's odds are shorter than +200. It's the negative correlation that really drives this thing home.
But given that two of the NBA's best defences are on the court in Minneapolis tonight, I really do expect a fairly low-scoring game.
OKC's high-level defensive accolades are listed above. As for Minnesota, the team ranks in the top five in both defensive rating and opponent FG%.
Unders are 17-7-0 when the Timberwolves are at home this season. Oh, and both head-to-head matchups between these teams finished with fewer than 220 total points.
Still, despite having played a pair of grind-it-out games already this season, Gilgeous-Alexander and Edwards scored 30+ and 25+ points, respectively, both times.
It's quite possible for the stars to get their share of looks without it turning into a track meet.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions made at 12:30 p.m. on Jan. 29, 2026.
