The Denver Nuggets visit the Milwaukee Bucks as part of the NBA's late slate on Friday night.
The pregame narrative: There's uncertainty around who's available, and Milwaukee is struggling, dropping five of its last seven to fall to 11th in the East. As a result, I'm staying away from a side and have instead built a same-game parlay recommendation around the total and two player props.
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Check out my Nuggets vs. Bucks picks on Jan. 23, featuring SGP legs on Myles Turner and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
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Nuggets vs. Bucks picks
SGP: Over 212.5 points | Turner over. 4.5 rebounds | Antetokounmpo under 30.5 points (+450)
Over 212.5 points (-139): Milwaukee cashes unders at the third-highest rate in the NBA. But Denver is on the other end as one of three teams hitting overs at a 60% clip.
Neither team has been playing good defence. Since Jan. 1:
- Denver is 24th in defensive rating.
- Milwaukee ranks 27th.
- They've allowed 228 PPG combined.
The Nuggets remain without offensive star Nikola Jokic and several players are on the injury report after the team played last night. That includes Jamal Murray (questionable), Peyton Watson (questionable) and Aaron Gordon (probable).
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Any combination of those guys being out in addition to Jokic would hurt the upside of Denver’s offence tonight.
But I’m still expecting enough points to clear this line. The standard over/under (215) is the lowest of Friday's eight NBA games.
On the second half of the Nuggets’ eight back-to-backs this season, the over on this total is 7-1.
Milwaukee’s 3-point defence has been atrocious, and Denver (No. 1 in offensive rating) has still been a respectable unit on the offensive side of things without Jokic.
NBA SGP predictions
Turner over 4.5 rebounds (-152): Turner isn’t a big force down low, but hopefully he can take advantage on the glass without one of the game’s elite rebounders on the court.
The Milwaukee centre corralled five rebounds when these teams met on Jan. 11, and is 7-3 vs. this number over his last 10.
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On the season, Turner is averaging 5.3 rebounds per game. While not impressive, I’m not asking for anything extraordinary in this situation.
Hitting his season average against a depleted Nuggets team on a back-to-back should be attainable.
Giannis NBA player prop bet
Antetokounmpo under 30.5 points (-150): This situation is ripe for Antetokounmpo to go off. But I have my reservations.
Something weird is going on amidst the dysfunction in Milwaukee and the trade rumours swirling around the organization's franchise player.
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- Antetokounmpo has taken between 11 and 13 shots in five of his last six games.
- He has hit the over on this number just once over that stretch, when he hoisted a modest 17 shots and scored 31 vs. Denver.
With no 3-point shot to speak of, his recent volume from the field makes it incredibly difficult to hit the 30-point mark, even for someone as efficient as Giannis.
Antetokounmpo's playing time doesn't help either, as he's rarely getting more than 30 minutes a game.
Giannis blew past this number in four straight contests to start the season. Excluding an injury-shortened game in December, he's 8-16 since then.
Nuggets vs. Bucks picks made at 2:35 p.m. on Jan. 23, 2026.
