I'm attacking one of the most unpredictable weeks of the NFL season with three long-shot touchdown picks.
The pregame narrative: Connor Heyward has sneaky value to score a touchdown as an understated member of the Pittsburgh Steelers' red-zone offence. Sean Tucker is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' preferred goal-line back and has nice odds to find pay dirt.
Check out my top NFL Week 18 TD picks, featuring Brock Purdy.
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NFL Week 18 TD picks
Best bet: Heyward to score a TD (+750)
We're going out with a bang with this touchdown pick.
This is the final game of the NFL season, and it could potentially be the last game of Aaron Rodgers' career. I expect the Steelers to do everything they can to win this game, and that should involve Heyward getting the ball.
When Pittsburgh is in short-yardage situations, it will utilize the tush push. Unlike the Philadelphia Eagles, who put the ball in Jalen Hurts' hands, the Steelers don't turn to their quarterback.
They look to Heyward.
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In fact, Heyward scored a tush push touchdown just a few weeks ago in Week 15.
The Steelers are giving him the ball more in recent outings, too. Heyward only had six carries through the first 13 weeks of the season.
He's matched that total in the last three weeks.
Pittsburgh is short on offensive talent, too. The team is without DK Metcalf and Darnell Washington for this contest.
I expect Heyward's involvement to rise and for him to have a chance at a short touchdown.
Key stat: Heyward is tied for the team lead in carries inside the five over the last four weeks (two).
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NFL Week 18 touchdown bets
Tucker to score a TD (+200): Tampa Bay's top red zone running back is a nice value to score a touchdown.
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Tucker has the third-best odds to score a TD on the Bucs, coming in behind fellow running back Bucky Irving.
But I don't think that should be the case:
- Tucker leads Tampa Bay in carries inside the 20 (21), inside the 10 (14), and inside the five (11) this season.
- Irving has not recorded a carry inside the five since returning from injury in Week 13. Tucker has seven carries inside the five during the same stretch.
Tucker has a touchdown in three of his last four games, including in his team's Week 16 loss to the Carolina Panthers.
Purdy to score a TD (+500): Lastly, I'm betting on Purdy shining on a big stage.
Purdy showed in Week 17 that he's going to take off when he needs to. He turned six carries into 28 yards and two scores in his team's win over the Chicago Bears.
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Purdy is now up to three rushing touchdowns in his last four games.
The Seattle Seahawks rank fifth in pressure percentage (26.1%) and should be able to flush Purdy out of the pocket. When that happens near the end zone, expect Purdy to look to score himself.
NFL TD picks made at 12:51 p.m. ET on Jan. 3, 2026.
