Two guards, Keyonte George and Tyler Herro, are the focus of Thursday's NBA prop bets.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: I'm looking to stay hot after going 3-for-3 on yesterday's picks. George is having a career year, but he's a strong fade candidate against the Dallas Mavericks. Herro is making his second start since returning from an 11-game injury absence, and there's value on his 3s prop.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 8, featuring a fade on Pascal Siakam.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 8
Best bet: George under 25.5 points (-118)
Entering play on Jan. 8, George sits third on the Most Improved Player odds board at 12-to-1, behind Jalen Johnson (+200) and Deni Avdija (-177).
It's pretty easy to see why, looking at his scoring numbers:
- 2024-25 (67 games): 16.8 PPG, 39.1 FG%, 34.3 3PT%
- 2025-26 (35 games): 24.3 PPG, 45.0 FG%, 37.2 3PT%
But his per-game average sits below this total, he's on a cold streak, and this is a tough matchup.
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George is a mid-range assassin, taking 48% of his shots from that area of the court. That ranks in the 97th percentile among all guards, per Cleaning the Glass.
Dallas owns the third-best mid-range defence in the NBA, holding opponents to a 41.6 FG% in that area of the court. It also has the best 3-point defence to boot (33.2%).
On the second leg of a back-to-back, I expect the third-year guard to struggle.
Key stat: George has gone under this total in three straight games to start the new year while shooting 40.9% from the floor.
Best NBA picks
Herro 3+ threes (+115): Herro returned to action on Tuesday, scoring 17 points in 29 minutes while going 1-for-4 from deep.
He's only played seven games this year, averaging 2.3 threes on 39.0% shooting. That isn't much to go off, but we all know the type of scorer Herro can be if he gets rolling.
The guard averaged 3.0+ threes in three straight seasons before this one, averaging 3.3 threes on 8.7 attempts last year (37.5%).
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Given his 29 minutes last night, we shouldn't have to worry about a big minutes restriction.
It's only a matter of time before this market will be priced odds-on, perhaps at unplayable numbers.
The Chicago Bulls, tonight's opponent, allow the eighth-most 3s per game (13.9) at the 10th-highest rate (36.7%).
NBA player prop predictions
Siakam under 38.5 PRA (-120): I wanted to fade Siakam as a rebounder tonight against the Charlotte Hornets, but the under on his 7.5 total carries far too much juice (-155).
Charlotte is great on the glass, ranking second in rebounding rate.
The Hornets' standout rookie centre, Ryan Kalkbrenner, remains sidelined. But they're still second in rebounding rate since his injury on Dec. 20.
They've also held three straight opponents under 100 points, beating the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Jan. 5.
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All that said, taking the under on his PRA line seems fine to me. Siakam has gone under this mark in three of his last five games, landing on exactly 37 PRA in one of the outliers.
He also went under this mark against the Hornets earlier this year, totalling 33 PRA in 37 minutes.
NBA prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Jan. 8, 2026.
