Shai Gilgeous-Alexander headlines my NBA prop picks from Wednesday's massive 12-game slate.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: The Oklahoma City Thunder have dropped two straight and are officially slumping. Tonight, the reigning champs are big favourites over the lowly Utah Jazz, setting the table for SGA and Co. to right the ship.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 7, featuring Payton Pritchard and Paolo Banchero.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 7
Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 30.5 points (-117)
The Thunder were 24-1 entering play on Dec. 13 and on pace to shatter the Golden State Warriors' single-season win record before dropping six of their last 12.
Typical regression? Opponents found a defensive scheme? Too much turkey over the holidays?
Whatever the case, I say the buck stops tonight with Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge. And it's not like the reigning MVP played poorly during that 12-game stretch:
- 29.5 PPG
- 52.2 FG%
- 30+ points seven times
-> Bet on SGA prop markets for tonight's Jazz vs. Thunder matchup!
The Canadian is going to get his buckets, and he has an A+ matchup against Utah, which allows the second-most points per game to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros.
SGA played the Jazz earlier this year and dropped 31 points on 9-of-14 shooting, adding 10 at the line.
Last season, when he averaged a league-best 32.7 PPG, Gilgeous-Alexander scored a season-high 54 points against Utah.
SGA did go under this mark in his two other meetings last year, but he still had strong outings. This seems like a good time for the MVP to have a statement game.
Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 30-plus points in 26 of 36 games this year.
Best NBA picks
Pritchard over 4.5 rebounds (+104): Pritchard isn't the most physically imposing player in the NBA at 6-foot-1, 195 pounds. You probably wouldn't even bat an eye walking past him on the street.
But the point guard plays big minutes for the Celtics (32.9 per game) and averages a respectable 4.5 rebounds, which is right in line with tonight's total.
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He should have every opportunity to over-index on that mark against a Denver Nuggets team missing Nikola Jokic and Jonas Valanciunas.
Jokic has been out for four games with a hyperextended knee, and while it's a small sample, the Nuggets sit 27th in rebounding rate in his absence.
Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Christian Braun (ankle) are also questionable after missing Monday's contest.
Pritchard has logged four-plus rebounds in nine of his last 11 games, clearing this mark five times.
NBA player prop predictions
Banchero over 23.5 points (-104): Banchero had a horrible start to the year from an efficiency standpoint and currently ranks 101st in FG% (45.3).
It looks like the all-star has found a groove, though, averaging 25.0 PPG in his last five on 52.7% shooting.
Banchero cleared this mark in three of those contests, landing on exactly 23 points in one of the outliers.
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Tonight's game against the Brooklyn Nets should be close — Orlando is a 2-point road favourite — meaning Banchero will get lots of run.
That sounds good to me, considering the Nets are 20th in defensive rating and allow the 11th-most PPG to opposing power forwards.
NBA prop picks made at 10:11 a.m. ET on Jan. 7, 2026.
