A trio of big men headline Tuesday's NBA prop bets.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Anthony Davis is playing big minutes and should thrive on the glass against the undersized Sacramento Kings. Elsewhere, look for Evan Mobley to continue his elite run of defensive play when the Cleveland Cavaliers battle the Indiana Pacers.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 6, featuring a prediction on Zion Williamson.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 6
Best bet: Davis over 11.5 rebounds (-112)
Dallas has taken the kid gloves off of Davis.
The centre has averaged 35.8 minutes over his last seven games, excluding a Christmas Day matchup against the Golden State Warriors, where he left early with an injury.
That's always a risk with AD, but it's one I'm willing to take tonight.
In that seven-game span (again, sans Warriors game), he has put up huge numbers on the glass:
- 12.7 rebounds/game
- 12+ rebounds five times
- 14+ rebounds four times
-> Bet on prop markets for Tuesday's Mavericks vs. Kings nightcap!
The Mavericks aren't a great team, and neither are the Kings. Dallas is a slim 5.5-point road favourite, so I expect this to be a close matchup with Davis playing around 35 minutes.
If he gets that much run, clearing this should be a breeze.
Key stat: Sacramento ranks 29th in rebounding rate since Domantas Sabonis went down with an injury on Nov. 16.
Best NBA picks
Mobley over 1.5 blocks (-134): The reigning Defensive Player of the Year has been on a warpath lately, putting up some ridiculous numbers in his last four games:
- Jan 4 vs. Pistons: 4 blocks, 1 steal
- Jan 2 vs. Nuggets: 3 blocks, 1 steal
- Dec. 31 vs. Suns: 5 blocks, 1 steal
- Dec. 29 at Spurs: 3 blocks
-> Full betting markets for Tuesday's NBA slate
Indiana lacks size and plays at the 11th-fastest pace in the league. The Pacers give up the sixth-most blocks per game to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.
Mobley should have another big game defensively.
NBA player prop predictions
Williamson over 24.5 points (-110): Hopefully, Williamson can stay healthy for the rest of the season, because he's truly electric whenever he's on the court.
His numbers since returning on Dec. 14:
- 23.5 PPG
- 60.1 FG%
- 26.3 MPG
Williamson came off the bench for the first seven games, but has started the last four.
In that span, he's scored 30-plus points three times and is playing just under 30 minutes a night.
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Williamson's only meeting with the Lakers over the last two seasons came 10 months ago in March 2025, and he erupted for 37 points on 17-of-23 shooting (73.9%) in that matchup.
It's a small sample, but one I put value in, given L.A.'s defensive track record this season.
Los Angeles has given up the seventh-most points per game to power forwards and sits 26th in defensive rating.
NBA prop picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET on Jan. 5, 2026.
