Joel Embiid has returned to form as an elite scorer and headlines Saturday's NBA prop picks.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Embiid has been among the league's hottest players in the last two weeks, and is worth backing against the New Orleans Pelicans. Elsewhere, Andrew Wiggins has a plus matchup against the Chicago Bulls.
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Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 31, featuring a pick on Indiana Pacers guard Johnny Furphy.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 31
Best bet: Embiid over 28.5 points (-113)
There isn't a wrong way to back Embiid tonight.
The former MVP has been on a rampage over his last six games, stuffing the stats sheet with remarkable efficiency:
- 33.2 PPG
- 9.0 RPG
- 5.2 APG
- 55.7 EFG%
He went over tonight's 28.5 point total in each of those games and went over tonight's 42.5 PRA total in five of them.
For simplicity's sake, I'll back Embiid as a scorer.
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He has taken at least 17 shots in each of his last six games while averaging 10.8 trips to the line. That'll play from a volume standpoint.
I'm a big fan of Derik Queen, the Pelicans' 6-foot-9 rookie centre out of Maryland, but I struggle to see how he will contain Embiid in the low post.
New Orleans sits 27th in defensive rating and allows the fifth-most points per game to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.
Key stat: Embiid has scored 37-plus points in four of his last five games against New Orleans.
Best NBA picks
Wiggins over 16.5 points (-105): Wiggins has fallen under this line in three straight and had just 10 points against the Bulls on Thursday.
But I like the Canadian's chances of bouncing back this evening.
Miami and Chicago play at the fastest and fifth-fastest pace (i.e. possessions per 48 minutes) in the league, per NBA.com. More possessions mean more opportunities to score.
Wiggins should be the benefactor with Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell and Tyler Herro all expected to be sidelined.
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Chicago is allowing the most points per game to opposing power forwards, and big man Nikola Vucevic is listed as doubtful to play.
Wiggins is averaging 15.6 PPG this year. Look for him to over-index based on this matchup.
NBA player prop predictions
Furphy over 5.5 rebounds (+123): Furphy, a 6-foot-8 shooting guard, isn't doing much shooting at all.
The sophomore is averaging just 5.3 PPG, but has been a big contributor on the glass since re-entering the starting lineup on Jan. 4:
- 6.6 RPG
- 5+ rebounds in 11 of 13 games
- 6+ rebounds in 7 of 13 games
Furphy has cleared this line in three of his last four games and has a solid matchup against a Hawks team with a thin front court.
Onyeka Okongwu (7.3 RPG) is out, and Jalen Johnson (10.5 RPG) is questionable for Atlanta.
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NBA prop picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on Jan. 31, 2026.
