The Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons face the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday night, and I'm backing a pair of star guards in the prop market.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Cade Cunningham had 11 assists last time out and is always a threat to reach double digits. Look for him to hit the 10-assist milestone tonight and fade Kitchener, Ontario's Jamal Murray on the other side.
Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 27, featuring a pick on Phoenix Suns forward Royce O'Neale.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 27
Best bet: Cunningham over 9.5 assists (-108)
If Nikola Jokic were healthy, tonight's Pistons/Nuggets game would be a showcase of the two most productive playmakers in the league.
We'll have to settle for one, but Cunningham is a pretty compelling watch on his own.
The all-star guard is in his fifth season, and his assists-per-game rate has climbed with each passing year: 5.6, 6.0, 7.5, 9.1 and 9.7.
Technically, his 9.7 APG leads the NBA. But that's only because the injured Jokic (11.0 APG) isn't meeting the minimum game requirement at the moment.
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One stat Cunningham is undisputedly clear of Jokic on is potential assists, which accounts for any passes that lead directly to a shot. According to NBA.com's tracking data, Detroit's star is averaging 18.2 potential assists nightly.
Jokic is the only other player north of 16.0 potential assists/game.
Cunningham has cashed this bet in 21 of 38 games (55.3%), and he finished with exactly nine assists in five of the outliers.
Based on this prop's implied probability (53.3%), there's some value backing the over tonight.
Key stat: Cunningham is 10-6 vs. this prop in his past 16 games, averaging 10.6 APG in that span.
Best NBA picks
Murray under 7.5 assists (-150): I don't expect Murray to go blow-for-blow with Cunningham in the assist department, and this is a fair line to fade him at even with Jokic out.
- This under is 6-4 in Murray's 10 games without Jokic this season.
- Overall, Murray is averaging 7.3 APG and has gone under 7.5 assists in 23 of 41 matchups (56.1%).
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Detroit allows the fewest assists per game overall and the second-fewest to opposing point guards, according to Fantasy Pros.
Murray (hamstring) is probable to play after missing the Nuggets' most recent game. Being a little banged up likely won't help.
NBA player prop predictions
O'Neale over 2.5 threes (-106): Devin Booker will miss a second consecutive game tonight, which should allow for O'Neale and others to take more shots from 3-point range.
Last time out, O'Neale went 0-for-7 from deep. Though I'm obviously hoping for a better result, the volume is nice to see.
And really, that's a pretty standard shot count for the ninth-year pro. He's having a career-best season from 3-point range, hitting at a 40.8% clip on 6.9 attempts.
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O'Neale is 29-17 vs. this prop.
Tonight, he'll face a Brooklyn Nets squad that allows the highest opponent 3PT% in the league (38.3%).
NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on Jan. 27, 2026.
