I'm focused on the frontcourt for Thursday's NBA prop picks, with predictions on a trio of star centres.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Victor Wembanyama has dominated the Utah Jazz twice already this season, and I see no reason why it'd be a different story tonight. Elsewhere, look for Bam Adebayo to continue putting distance between himself and a recent shooting slump.
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Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 22, featuring a prediction on Joel Embiid.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 22
Best bet: Wembanyama over 25.5 points (-121)
Wembanyama has scored 30+ points in both matchups against the Jazz this year, and he did it in two distinctly different ways.
- In the first matchup (Dec. 27), Wemby scored with efficiency from inside the arc, sinking 12 of 21 shots — and all eight free throws. He failed to make any of his four 3-point attempts.
- On Monday (Jan. 19), he set fire to the 3-point line, going 7-for-12 from deep for a season-high mark in triples.
The 7-foot-4 centre can score from anywhere, which is part of what makes him so dangerous. If he's having an off-night from deep, he's happy to make hay at the elbow, in the low post, or at the free-throw line.
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Wemby can go for 30 on any given night, but it makes sense for the Jazz to be a team he's so easily able to victimize.
- Utah allows the fourth-most points per game to opposing centres, according to Fantasy Pros.
- The Jazz rank dead last in the NBA in defensive rating (122.2), opponent PPG (127.4) and opponent FG% (49.4).
This line asks a bit more of Wembanyama than his season scoring average (24.4 PPG), but it's a negligible difference.
Wemby is 7-5 vs. this prop in his past 12 games and should get over the line again tonight.
Key stat: In five games vs. the Jazz since the start of last season, Wembanyama is averaging 29.6 points on 53.6/44.2/1.000 shooting splits.
Best NBA picks
Adebayo over 18.5 points (-113): Adebayo went through a multi-week shooting slump recently, which is something you rarely see for a big man who takes most of his shots within six feet of the basket.
But after an 11-game span in which he shot just 37.1% from the field, Adebayo is back in a groove.
He's taking (and sinking) plenty of shots right now, averaging 22.0 points on 16.8 field goal attempts over his past five games. He is 4-1 vs. this prop.
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The Portland Trail Blazers, who he'll face tonight, are allowing the eighth-most points per game to centres.
Portland also allows the fifth-highest FG% on short midrange shots, according to Cleaning The Glass. That's where nearly 40% of Adebayo's shots come from.
NBA player prop predictions
Embiid over 25.5 points (-113): Public sentiment on Embiid has soured through the years, given that he seems incapable of staying healthy for long stretches, and he's never reached the conference finals.
But when he's available, Embiid is still a dangerous scorer who has the potential to blow well past this line.
Look at his past 12 games:
- 27.7 PPG
- 52.3 FG%
- 9-3 vs. this prop
Embiid attempts 51% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 97th percentile among bigs. Tonight, he'll face a Houston Rockets team that allows 33.9% of opponent shots in that range, which is the second-highest shot share in the league.
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The two-time scoring champ hasn't faced the Rockets since January 2024, but he did drop 41 on them that night. Here's hoping he can fill the net again on Thursday.
NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 22, 2026.
