A trio of NBA stars have my attention for Tuesday's NBA prop picks.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Anthony Edwards put up a career-high point total last time out and is worth backing on an even-money scoring prop with an A+ matchup tonight. Elsewhere, I'm putting some cold water on Kevin Durant's recent hot streak with a fade on his 3s prop.
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Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 20, featuring a prediction on Domantas Sabonis.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 20
Best bet: Sabonis over 8.5 rebounds (-134)
Sure, there's some extra juice on this prop. But it could be the last time we see a line this low for Sabonis, and I think that's worth taking advantage of.
Sabonis is working back from a knee injury, which forced him to miss 27 games. He returned to action on Jan. 16 and has come off the bench in his first two matchups:
- Jan. 16: 21 MIN, 13 PTS, 6 REB
- Jan. 18: 20 MIN, 8 PTS, 8 REB
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Will Sabonis see an uptick in minutes tonight? It's difficult to know for sure, but hopefully his workload does move a little closer to normal — especially with trade rumours swirling.
The three-time defending NBA rebounding champ averaged 13.3 rebounds on 35.0 minutes over the past three seasons. I certainly don't expect that tonight, but nine rebounds over 20-25 minutes seems like a very reasonable ask.
Sabonis and the Sacramento Kings will face the Miami Heat, who are allowing the second-most rebounds per game.
Key stat: Sabonis has 12+ rebounds in each of his past five matchups vs. the Heat. That includes 34 total boards over two matchups last season.
Best NBA picks
Durant under 2.5 threes (-127): Durant is in a groove right now, and it might not feel like the right time to fade him. But his 3-pointers line has drifted up to a spot where I feel comfortable riding with the under.
- Durant doesn't need big-time volume from beyond the arc to be a successful scorer. He's one of the greatest midrange hoopers of all time. He's shooting 53% from the midrange this season, per Cleaning The Glass, which ranks in the 91st percentile.
- On the whole, Durant is averaging 2.2 made 3s on 5.6 attempts per game this season.
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Over his past 12 games, Durant has put up 28.0 PPG while shooting north of 50.0%. Nice, right?
But even though his 3-point shot volume is higher than usual in that span (7.2 attempts/game), KD has cashed this under in nine of 12 games.
Also, this under is 26-12 for Durant throughout the season.
NBA player prop predictions
Edwards over 3.5 threes (+100): It's difficult to find a player who oozes confidence more freely than Edwards. And right now, every ounce of that confidence is warranted.
- Edwards is coming off a masterful performance against a supremely talented Spurs squad: 55 points on 19-of-33 shooting (9 for 16 from 3-point range).
- Over his past six games, he's shooting 52.7% from deep on 9.2 attempts.
- For the season overall, Edwards is averaging 3.5 made 3s while shooting at an elite 41.8% clip.
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Tonight's matchup should be a cakewalk for Edwards, as he faces the worst scoring defence in the league, belonging to the Utah Jazz.
Utah allows the most points (127.5/game), the most 3s (15.7/game) and the second-highest 3PT% (37.8).
When he last faced the Jazz in Utah in November, Edwards put up 35 points with 5-of-9 shooting from beyond the arc.
NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 20, 2026.
