Aaron Gordon is back up to full speed, and he's staring down a juicy matchup on Saturday night at home against the Washington Wizards.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Gordon missed a significant chunk of time with a hamstring injury, but he's played six games so far this month and seems to be fully ramped up. Look for him to take advantage of a team that struggles to slow down high-scoring bigs.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 17, featuring Kon Knueppel and Ausar Thompson.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 17
Best bet: Gordon over 19.5 points (-130)
Nikola Jokic (knee) has been cleared for on-court work, which is obviously great news for the Nuggets. And it comes just as Gordon returns to full strength.
Gordon (hamstring) came back on Jan. 4 after about a month and a half off. He came off the bench in his first three games post-injury, but now the 6-foot-8 forward is back in the rotation and playing his typical 30-ish minutes per night.
- In three games as a starter this month, Gordon has averaged 20.3 points on 14.3 field goal attempts. That's the kind of volume we're looking for.
- This season, Gordon is averaging 12.4 field goal attempts, which is his highest mark since joining the Nuggets in 2020-21. It makes sense that he's ratcheted that volume up even higher with Jokic on the sidelines.
-> Bet on Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon vs. the Wizards!
If Jokic was healthy and playing on Saturday, I'd be looking at his prop markets first. But without him, Gordon should be able to feast against Washington's woeful defence.
The Wizards allow the second-most points per game and the fifth-most 3-point attempts. Gordon is a big man with an adept scoring touch from the outside, so he should thrive.
At his current shot volume, and without Jokic around, Gordon is a smash play in this A+ matchup.
Key stat: According to Fantasy Pros, the Wizards allow the second-most points per game to opposing power forwards (25.4).
Best NBA picks
Thompson over 5.5 rebounds (-124): When Thompson last faced the Indiana Pacers way back on Nov. 22, he only amassed three rebounds. But his output on the glass since then has my attention.
- Over his past 22 games, Thompson is 16-6 vs. this prop while averaging 5.9 rebounds.
- He's capable of doing less with more, too. Thompson, who averages 26.2 minutes, in each of his past three games with 20 or fewer minutes played.
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Although it didn't work out when he last faced the Pacers, I'm not giving up on Thompson as a rebounder in this matchup.
Indiana allows the seventh-most rebounds per game to opposing small forwards, as well as the third-most rebounds overall.
NBA player prop predictions
Knueppel over 17.5 points (-105): Knueppel continues to amaze in his rookie season with the Hornets, and I'm not backing down from his points prop against a stout Golden State Warriors defence.
The Warriors rank seventh in the NBA in defensive rating (112.4), but Knueppel is on an extended heater that's worth backing.
Over his past 16 games, here's what the ex-Duke forward has posted:
- 20.6 PPG
- 52.3 FG%
- 47.1 3PT%
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Knueppel is 13-3 vs. this points prop in that span, too. At near-even money, I'm content to back someone who's shooting this well.
Hopefully, the Hornets create more shots for Knueppel — and fewer for guys like Miles Bridges and Brandon Miller — in the future.
NBA prop picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on Jan. 17, 2026.
