It's a light NBA slate on Monday, and I'm focusing on the Houston Rockets vs. Indiana Pacers matchup for two of my prop bets.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: In one of just three evening games, Indiana hosts a Houston squad that won't have Kevin Durant. I'm fading Alperen Sengun against a lofty prop line while backing Andrew Nembhard to break through against a stout defence.
Check out these NBA prop picks for Feb. 2, featuring a prediction on Moussa Diabate from today's 3 p.m. tip-off in Charlotte.
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NBA prop picks Feb. 2
Best bet: Nembhard over 7.5 assists (-130)
Nembhard's season average is 7.5 assists, and given the difficulty of tonight's matchup (vs. the Rockets), my first instinct was to fade.
But after a closer look at Nembhard's recent assist output, I've flipped my stance.
Sure, the Rockets allow the second-fewest assists per game and rank fifth in defensive rating. But Nembhard is in the NBA's elite class of passers right now, which makes this line attainable.
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- Over his past 12 games (since Jan. 2), Nembhard is averaging 14.8 potential assists per game. That accounts for all passes that lead directly to shots.
- In that span, only Cade Cunningham and Luka Doncic have more potential assists/game.
- Nembhard is averaging 9.4 assists over his past 12 games.
Again, it's not an ideal matchup for the Aurora, Ontario native to do his thing. But he's the only Indiana Pacer averaging north of 4.0 assists this season, and he's ratcheted up the volume lately.
Key stat: Nembhard is 10-2 vs. this prop in his past 12 games, with at least nine assists in each of the overs.
Best NBA picks
Diabate over 21.5 points/rebounds (-125): The Charlotte Hornets are on one right now, having just tied for the best point differential in a calendar month (+151) in NBA history.
It's been a true team effort, and Diabate certainly deserves some of the credit.
The gangly centre averaged 9.8 points and 9.3 rebounds in January. And he posted a double-double in five of his past 11 games.
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Also, he's playing close to 30 minutes per night now after coming off the bench consistently through late-December.
With a larger role and some recent success, now is the time to back Diabate. He's set to face the New Orleans Pelicans this afternoon in an A+ matchup.
According to Fantasy Pros, the Pelicans allow the fifth-most points and rebounds to opposing centres.
NBA player prop predictions
Sengun under 40.5 points/rebounds/assists (-120): This line just seems too high for Sengun, who's averaging 21.0 points, 9.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists (36.6 PRA).
It's not that the Pacers are a particularly difficult defensive matchup. But Sengun often falls below this PRA total, and that's the side I'd much prefer to be on.
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- Since returning from an ankle injury, Sengun has gone under 40.5 PRA in eight of 12 games (averaging 34.9 PRA).
- Overall this season, the under is 23-17 (57.5%), which exceeds the implied probability of this wager (54.6%).
Durant's absence might put more on Sengun's plate, but there are plenty of other Rockets who can chip in.
Excluding Durant, Sengun is one of five Houston players averaging more than 12.0 points and one of five averaging more than 4.5 rebounds.
NBA prop picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET on Feb. 2, 2026.
