I've got three NBA prop picks from Saturday's loaded slate.
Today's NBA props narrative: Ausar Thompson is worth fading against a sneakily good Charlotte Hornets defence. Elsewhere, look for Mark Williams and Shaedon Sharpe to clear their respective rebounding and point totals.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 20.
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NBA prop picks Dec. 20
Best bet: Thompson under 19.5 PRA (-120)
Hornets? Sneakily good defence? Ok, I should clarify by saying the Hornets have a sneakily good interior defence.
Charlotte gets torched from beyond the arc, allowing 3s at the second-highest rate in the NBA (38.5%).
But Thompson rarely shoots from deep (he's attempted four 3s in his last 15 games) and will have to navigate past rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner in the paint.
Kalkbrenner earned the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Award with Creighton last year, and now, Charlotte has the eighth-best rim defence in the league, per Cleaning the Glass.
-> See full props for Hornets vs. Pistons!
Thompson isn't a big scorer to begin with, averaging 11.4 points to go along with 5.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists.
That 19.6 PRA average is right in line with this number and is worth fading in a tough matchup.
Key stat: The Hornets are allowing the seventh-fewest rebounds and 11th-fewest assists per game to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Pros.
Best NBA picks
Sharpe over 24.5 points (-113): I wanted to find one Trail Blazer to back in tonight's matchup against the Sacramento Kings.
Sacramento is one of the league's worst teams, ranking 27th in defensive rating and 29th in net rating. It has lost eight of its last nine games while allowing 121.1 points a night.
Enter Sharpe, who is running hot and just lit up the Kings for 26 points on Thursday.
-> Full betting markets for Friday's five-game NBA slate
The fourth-year guard is averaging 24.3 PPG this month and doesn't rely heavily on the 3-point ball. Sharpe takes 36% of his shots at the rim and another 32% in the mid-range.
Sacramento has the worst rim and mid-range defence in the NBA.
NBA player prop predictions
Williams 10+ rebounds (-106): One of the first things I do when searching for player props is see who the Warriors are playing.
If it's a team with a solid big man, like Williams, I'll consider taking the over on his rebounding total.
Golden State has one of the most undersized lineups in the NBA, with just one rotational player standing above 6-foot-8. That's sophomore 7-foot centre Quinten Post, and he doesn't do much on the glass.
Post is averaging 5.3 rebounds in just over 25 minutes a night in December.
-> Bet on Williams vs. the Warriors!
Williams is having a rough go lately, but he will be the biggest body whenever he's on the court, and had a monster 16-rebound game against the Warriors earlier this year.
The big man just played Golden State and had four rebounds in 19 minutes, but I don't expect a repeat performance on Saturday.
NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 20, 2025.
