The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets meet for an all-Texas showdown on Saturday night.
The pregame narrative: Cooper Flagg is coming off the best game of his young career, but is worth fading against a rabid Rockets defence. Houston is 16-4 at home this year, and is laying 10.5 points against the Anthony Davis-less Mavericks.
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Mavericks vs. Rockets SGP
Parlay: Flagg under 21.5 points | Durant 25+ points | Mavericks +20.5 (+310)
Flagg under 21.5 points (-148): Flagg flashed his all-world ceiling on Thursday, dropping 49 points on 69.0% shooting against the Charlotte Hornets.
I expect the Rookie of the Year frontrunner to come back to earth tonight.
Houston allows the third-fewest points per game, ranks sixth in defensive rating, and has the sixth-lowest opponent effective field goal percentage.
Flagg has gone up against his intra-state rivals three times, and is 0-3 against this line:
- Nov. 3: 10 points, 5-of-10 shooting
- Dec. 6: 19 points, 7-of-15 shooting
- Jan. 3: 10 points, 3-of-12 shooting
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On the season, Flagg is averaging 19.5 PPG. And he's just a tick above that in January (19.6 PPG) despite his 49-point game on Thursday.
Flagg has gone under this mark in nine of his last 12 games.
NBA SGP legs
Durant 25+ points (-162): Durant is on a five-game heater, and I want in.
- The veteran has put up 31, 24, 33, 32 and 36 points while shooting 53.4% from the field.
- On the season, KD is averaging 26.5 PPG. If that holds, it will be his 10th straight season with 26.0+ PPG.
- He has reached this milestone in 26 of 44 games (59.0%).
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Durant had a poor shooting night in his first meeting with the Mavericks this year, but went off in the last two outings for 27 and 34 points.
Mavericks +20.5 (-455): This leg nearly doubles the SGP's value from +170 to +310 thanks to some negative correlation. I think it's well worth adding.
Dallas is 2-1 against Houston this year, winning both games with Davis in the lineup and losing the game where he was sidelined, 110-102. Still, they comfortably covered this spread in the loss.
The Mavericks are 9-19 without Davis, but have covered this number in the last 10 games without him, per StatMuse.
Houston hasn't been blowing the doors off of teams lately, either. It has failed to cover this number in 15 straight games with only three double-digit wins in that span.
Mavericks vs. Rockets predicitons made at 11:50 a.m. on Jan. 30, 2026.
