The Denver Nuggets return home after beating the Houston Rockets in a thriller on Friday.
The pregame narrative: They'll play the banged-up Sacramento Kings on Saturday, and Denver is favoured to win by double-digit points. I'll back the home side to cover a teased-down spread behind a big performance from Nikola Jokic on the glass.
Check out my Kings vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for Nov. 22, featuring Jokic and Keegan Murray.
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Kings vs. Nuggets predictions
Parlay: Jokic 12+ rebounds | Murray over 10.5 points | Nuggets -8.5 (+390)
Jokic 12+ rebounds (-150): Jokic should feast against the Kings without Domantas Sabonis.
- Sacramento has struggled to contain centres this season, allowing the fifth-most rebounds to the position (16.21), per Fantasy Pros.
- When the Nuggets played the Kings on Nov. 11, Jokic finished with 15 rebounds.
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Sacramento doesn't have much depth at centre. Drew Eubanks and Precious Achiuwa are the bigs that the Kings have used to fill Sabonis' role.
Jokic should dominate those two, leading to another monster rebounding performance.
He is averaging 13.0 rebounds and is 11-4 against this line.
NBA SGP legs
Murray over 10.5 points (-130): Murray made his season debut last game, playing a healthy 33 minutes.
He scored 11 points on 5-of-13 shooting while hitting just one 3-pointer on six attempts.
So it looks like that's going to be close to his floor as a scorer moving forward.
The Kings need all the help they can get, which gives me confidence they'll continue to give Murray a lot of looks.
If he takes a handful of 3s and double-digit shots again, he won't need to be super effective to surpass this modest total.
-> Back Nikola Jokic and Keegan Murray on Saturday
Like I mentioned before, the Kings are severely lacking frontcourt depth. Without Sabonis, Murray is the best big man they have, and it looks like there are no restrictions on his minutes.
Nuggets -8.5 (-177): The Nuggets earned a hard-fought win over the Rockets in the NBA Cup on Friday, but the rest disadvantage isn't enough to deter me from taking them to win.
Sacramento has lost eight straight, while failing to cover this spread a single time during the drought.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 12-3 and 9-1 in their last 10 games.
They are a special team that is well-conditioned. They are 2-0 with zero days' rest this season, winning each game by 7+ points.
At home, I'm confident the Nuggets can outperform the struggling Kings, even with no rest.
Kings vs. Nuggets SGP made at 11:32 a.m. ET Nov. 22, 2025.
