The Golden State Warriors host the Milwaukee Bucks in tonight's star-studded NBA nightcap.
The pregame narrative: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Steph Curry are both playing at an MVP level, but their teams have fairly pedestrian records. Milwaukee is 4-1 since Giannis returned from injury, but the team is a 6.5-point road underdog tonight.
Check out my Bucks vs. Warriors SGP predictions for Jan. 7 featuring both star players.
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Bucks vs. Warriors SGP
Parlay: Bucks +3.5 | Giannis 10+ rebounds | Curry 3+ threes (+310)
Bucks +3.5 (+130): It wasn't long ago when these teams were perennial title contenders, but those days are gone.
Milwaukee (16-20) and Golden State (19-18) are middling. I think this matchup should be closer to a coin flip, so I'm comfortable teasing the Bucks to cover this number.
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The Bucks are 13-9 with Giannis in the lineup, covering a +3.5 spread at a 72.7% clip. Check out the team's splits with and without its star player, via StatMuse:
- With Giannis: 118.9 offensive rating, +1.3 net rating
- Without Giannis: 108.0 offensive rating, -7.8 net rating
Few players can impact a game like the Greek Freak. I expect him to be a force on the glass (more on that later) and do damage in the paint.
Milwaukee is 6-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.
NBA SGP legs
Giannis 10+ rebounds (-278): Golden State doesn't have an elite big man on its roster, and it ranks 22nd in rebounding rate as a result.
Sophomore centre Quinten Post is the only 7-footer in the rotation, and he averages just 4.1 rebounds a night.
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That said, Giannis should be licking his chops at this matchup.
He's averaged double-digit boards in each of the last nine seasons and has cleared this mark in three straight games.
Some of his numbers this year are a little funky because of injuries and minutes restrictions, but Giannis played 32 minutes on Sunday and should be full-go tonight.
Curry 3+ threes (-345): I'll be shocked if this is the leg that sinks the SGP.
Curry is still the league's premier 3-point shooter, averaging the most makes (4.8) and attempts (12.2) per game. That nets out to a 39.2% clip.
He's hit this mark in 10 of 12 games since December, and he's had four-plus 3s in four straight.
Milwaukee is 18th in opponent 3-point percentage, so this isn't exactly a tough matchup.
Bucks vs. Warriors predictions made at 12 p.m. on Jan. 7, 2026.
