One stop short of the College Football Playoff national championship, the Miami Hurricanes battle the Ole Miss Rebels on Thursday in the Fiesta Bowl.
The pregame narrative: No. 10 Miami is one win away from playing for a title in its home stadium, while No. 6 Ole Miss is looking to continue sticking it to ex-coach Lane Kiffin. The Hurricanes are favoured in this CFP semifinal matchup thanks to their elite defence.
Check out my NCAAF Miami vs. Ole Miss predictions in this +510 same-game parlay, featuring Harrison Wallace and Mark Fletcher.
BET FINDER: Search & Bet!
-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on college football
Miami vs. OIe Miss predictions
Parlay: Wallace over 49.5 receiving yards | Under 53.5 points | Fletcher 80+ rushing yards (+510)
Wallace over 49.5 receiving yards (-137): Miami has an elite pass rush that will likely force Trinidad Chambliss to scramble more than a couple of times in this game.
When that happens, keep an eye out for Wallace downfield. The Rebs' fifth-year senior is a chunk play waiting to happen.
Wallace was by far the best wideout in Penn State's flawed receiving room a year ago, and he's had moments as the alpha WR during his lone season in Oxford.
No moment was bigger than his performance during the Sugar Bowl, when he exploded for season highs in targets (11), catches (nine) and yards (156) against a vaunted Georgia defence.
-> Bet on Wallace and the Rebels at NorthStar Bets!
- Through 14 games at Ole Miss, Wallace is averaging 63.9 receiving yards.
- He's 5-2 vs. this prop down the stretch, averaging 7.1 targets/game in that span.
After coming up big when the Rebels needed it most last week, Wallace should continue to be a focus for Mississippi's offence.
-> Check out NorthStar Bets' College Football Playoff prop markets
College Football Playoff picks
Under 52.5 points (-118): Ole Miss has an offence capable of taking the lid off this game, but I don't think that's the likeliest outcome. Miami is just too damn good on the defensive side.
Led by a pair of edge rushers who are destined for the NFL (Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor), the Hurricanes have been among the best in the country in some key categories:
- 3rd in sacks per game (3.4)
- 4th in points per game (13.8)
- 7th in yards per play (4.4)
-> Take the under in the Fiesta Bowl
Miami has gone under this total in 13 of 14 games. If the Hurricanes (-3.5) win the game, they'll likely do so by muzzling Chambliss and Co.
Ole Miss isn't as defensively strong, but the team does rank 12th in pass play success rate on the defensive side, per Game On Paper.
Miami's offence is fifth in pass play success rate, so these squads will be matching strengths.
Also, unders are 4-2 in the Rebs' past six games.
Hurricanes vs. Rebels Fiesta Bowl predictions
Fletcher 80+ rushing yards (-177): The best way to gash the Ole Miss defence is on the ground, and Fletcher can certainly do that.
It's all about opportunities for Fletcher, who averages a hearty 5.4 yards per attempt. He has 80+ rush yards in seven of 12 games this season — including all six games when he received 16 or more carries.
Fletcher has done some of his very best work during the CFP, racking up 262 yards on 36 carries. He cashed this bet in both games.
-> Bet now on No. 10 Miami vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
On defence, Ole Miss ranks 132nd in EPA per rush and 130th in rushing success rate. If there was a playoff team to pound the rock against, it's this one.
Both of Mississippi's playoff opponents had a running back clear this yardage milestone.
Miami vs. Ole Miss predictions made at 11:10 a.m. ET on Jan. 7, 2025.
