Saturday's Original Six showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens has a little more bite than usual to it.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is finally rounding into form after a dreadful start to the season and can catch Montreal in the standings with a win. The Maple Leafs are favoured to win a fourth straight game despite missing goaltender Joseph Woll, who was placed on the injured reserve this morning.
Check out my Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prop picks for Dec. 6, featuring Auston Matthews and Ivan Demidov.
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Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prop picks
Best Bet: Demidov to score 1+ points (+104)
Toronto has picked up points in six of its last eight (5-2-1), but Demidov should do damage tonight.
The Leafs have been one of the worst defensive teams this season, allowing the fourth-most chances (62.88) and eighth-most shots (29.1) on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick.
And things haven't been much better defensively during their recent eight-game heater:
- 30th in chances/60 (66.8)
- 29th in shots/60 (30.78)
- 20th in xGA/60 (3.2)
Expected goals and chances against aren't worth squat if a team has a goalie performing well, as Toronto did with Woll. But the netminder picked up a lower-body injury on Thursday, meaning Dennis Hildeby, who has a career .896 SV%, will start.
-> Bet on Ivan Demidov against the Maple Leafs
Demidov has been on a nice run, picking up points in seven of his last eight games. That includes two assists in a 5-2 win against Toronto on Nov. 22 (which Woll started).
The rookie also plays on the top power play, so I think these odds are a steal.
Key stat: Demidov is 15-11 against this line.
Best NHL prop picks
Matthews over 3.5 shots (-124): Matthews has been quietly producing in his last five games since returning from injury:
- 2 goals
- 5 points
- 3+ shots in every game
Toronto's captain has cleared this mark in back-to-back contests, logging five shots against the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday.
Carolina allows the fewest chances and shots per game, so that shot total jumps off the page.
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These days, Montreal is in the same boat defensively as Toronto. Since Nov. 11 (the same eight-game segment I referenced with the Leafs earlier), the Canadiens are allowing the most chances and the third-most shots on a 60-minute basis.
The Leafs are at their best when Matthews fires at will, and I think he'll have plenty of opportunities to do exactly that tonight.
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET Dec. 6, 2025.
