We're looking for diamonds in the rough for this week's NFL prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Jaylen Warren and the Pittsburgh Steelers should lean heavily on the run game against the Buffalo Bills. Elsewhere, Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton has a Grade-A matchup and a modest receiving total.
Check out my top NFL Week 13 prop bets, featuring a best bet on New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough.
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NFL Week 13 prop bets
Best bet: Shough over 20.5 completions (-114)
This pick is far from sexy. But I see value in backing a rookie QB on a 2-9 team in a game that should fade into the background during Sunday's 1 p.m. slate.
The Miami Dolphins have won three straight and are 5.5-point home favourites against New Orleans.
Miami's offence can put up points, and its defence has been great at stopping the run lately. Check out how that unit ranks over the last five weeks, with stats provided by RBSDM.com:
- 2nd in EPA per rush (-0.267)
- 26th in EPA per dropback (+0.167)
Conventional wisdom suggests the Saints will have to throw the ball if they're down. And they should have better success moving the ball through the air, anyway.
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Add in the fact that Alvin Kamara is likely sidelined, and this all adds up to Kellen Moore drafting a pass-happy game plan.
Last week, Shough was asked to do exactly that and smashed this total.
He completed 30 of 43 passes against the Atlanta Falcons for 243 yards. The game before, he fell just shy of this line (19-for-27, 282 yards, 2 TDS) in a win over the Carolina Panthers.
The second-rounder from Louisville can move the ball, and I expect him to be active this week.
Key stat: New Orleans has the seventh-highest passing play percentage in the NFL (60.03%).
Best NFL picks
Warren over 62.5 rushing yards (-114): If this game were in Orchard Park, I would probably steer clear of backing Warren.
But Buffalo's offence has some ugly home/road splits and should struggle to go nuclear with two of its starting tackles (Dion Dawkins, questionable and Spencer Brown, out) potentially sidelined.
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That means Pittsburgh won't have to be overly pass-happy. Not that it tends to do that anyway.
Warren toted the ball 18 times last week for 68 yards with Mason Rudiolph at QB. In the previous two weeks, with Aaron Rodgers under centre, he had 10 carries for 62 yards and 14 carries for 70 yards.
Buffalo's defence ranks 31st in EPA per rush in the last five weeks and 31st in yards per rush (5.3) on the season.
Otton over 34.5 receiving yards (-114): Otton commands a bunch of targets, and he faces an Arizona Cardinals defence that gets torched by tight ends.
- Arizona is allowing the ninth-most yards per game to TEs (58.5)
- Its linebackers have allowed a 113.1 passer rating to opposing QBs, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to RotoWire.
Otton has a 16.7% target share, which ranks in the 85th percentile for all tight ends. He is 5-2 against this line in his last seven games, averaging 52.6 yards per contest.
NFL prop bets made at 2:39 p.m. ET on Nov. 27, 2025.
