Two star players headline my NFL Week 13 TD picks
The pregame narrative: Three different Los Angeles Rams are minus-money to score on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. I think Kyren Williams holds the best value. Elsewhere, Jaxon Smith-Njigba should continue his Offensive Player of the Year campaign.
Check out my top NFL Week 13 TD picks
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NFL Week 13 TD picks
Best bet: Williams to score (-137)
This price jumped off the page at me. Los Angeles is a 10.5 point favourite, and I can get its RB1 to score at a playable price? Sign me up.
The Rams are a top-tier offence by several metrics:
- Sixth in PPG (27.8)
- Sixth in red-zone scoring percentage (65.96)
- Sixth in RBSDM.com's EPA per play (+0.125)
- Ninth in YPG (358.4)
They've really found it following their Week 8 bye, too, going 4-0 while averaging 32.75 PPG. In that span, L.A. ranks first in EPA per play.
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Williams isn't a full-blown bell cow anymore with Blake Corum in the picture, but he still gets the lion's share of carries.
This is a great spot for him to score.
Key stat: Williams has nine TDs on the season and four in his last four games (since L.A.'s bye), going 3-1 against this line.
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NFL Week 13 touchdown bets
Smith-Njigba to score (-109): If you're trying to contextualize how impressive Smith-Njigba's season has been, just know he's getting MVP chatter, sitting seventh in the odds board in a tie with Dak Prescott.
No wideout has ever won the MVP, so he's probably a better bet to win OPOY at -110. But, I digress:
- Smith-Njigba is on pace for 2,029 receiving yards, which would be the most ever and the first 2,000+ yard season.
- He's had 90+ receiving yards in 10 of 11 games.
- The triple crown is out of sight, but JSN still ranks a respectable fourth in TDs (seven), five behind Davante Adams.
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The wideout has proven to be matchup proof, so I'd be happy to back him at this price against any team. But the Minnesota Vikings' defence is middling, mainly because of how often it's on the field.
This is expected to be a rout, and JSN should contribute. He's cashed this bet in four straight home games.
NFL TD picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 28, 2025.
