Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley headlines this week's TD picks.
The pregame narrative: Philadelphia sits at 8-2, comfortably atop the NFC East, but the team struggling to produce on offence. A matchup with the Dallas Cowboys could fix that. Elsewhere, Rashee Rice looks to find pay dirt for a fourth time in five games.
Check out my top NFL Week 12 TD picks, featuring a play on Chicago Bears running back Kyle Monangai.
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NFL Week 12 TD picks
Best bet: Barkley to score (-115)
Philadelphia's offence simply isn't clicking, but I can't pass on Barkley at these odds.
Dallas' defence is terrible, ranking near the bottom of the league in several key categories (EPA data via RBSDM.com):
- 31st in scoring (29.3 PPG)
- 30th in yards allowed (381.3/game)
- 29th in EPA per play (+0.138)
The Eagles scored a combined 26 points in two games since their Week 9 bye, but a matchup against this unit should be a cure-all.
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Barkley has received a heavy dosage of looks even during Philly's downswing — touching the ball 52 times in the last two weeks — and that should continue against Dallas.
There's always a risk that the Jalen Hurts-led tush push could derail a Barkley TD bet. But tackle Lane Johnson is doubtful and centre Cam Jurgens is questionable, so I expect a more traditional approach near the goal line.
Barkley has 26 TDs since the beginning of last season and six in 10 games so far. Getting him to score at practically even money sounds good to me.
Key stat: Dallas is allowing 1.5 rushing TDs per game at home (second-most in the NFL), per Team Rankings.
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NFL Week 12
Rice to score (+116): Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs force-feed Rice the ball. And with the other receivers on the roster, I can't blame them.
Since returning from suspension in Week 7, Rice leads KC in:
- Receptions (26)
- Targets (35)
- Touchdowns (4)
Rice has been targeted on 28.7% of routes run, which ranks in the 86th percentile of all WRs, per Rotowire.
That's nothing new, either. He only played three full games in 2024, but he was targeted on 29.6% of routes run and scored two TDs.
Kansas City hosts an offence-first Indianapolis Colts team on Sunday.
Indy's defence has given up 25-plus points in four of its last five games, with the outlying performance coming against the last-place Tennessee Titans.
-> Bet on Colts vs. Chiefs prop markets
Monangai to score (+160): De'Andre Swift is the lead back in Chicago's offence, but that doesn't mean he's the best bet to score.
Following Chicago's Week 5 bye, the touches have been evenly distributed inside the 10-yard line between Swift and Monangai:
- Swift: 9 carries, 1 TD
- Monangai: 10 carries, 3 TDs
Monangai has done more with those opportunities, and I'm hoping Ben Johnson rewards him with a few more red zone touches. And remember, this is the same coach who had an equitable system with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
Chicago hosts a Pittsburgh Steelers team giving up the fifth-most yards per game while ranking 28th in EPA per rush.
I expect the Bears to be in scoring position early and often.
NFL TD picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 21, 2025.
