I'm backing one star receiver and fading another in my Sunday Night Football predictions this week.
The pregame narrative: Puka Nacua has been a machine for the Los Angeles Rams, and I don't expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to slow him down. As for Tampa's offence, the expectant return of Chris Godwin is part of what makes Emeka Egbuka worth fading.
Check out my Buccaneers vs. Rams picks for the primetime matchup on Nov. 23.
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Buccaneers vs. Rams picks
Best Bet: Nacua 90+ receiving yards (-120)
Nacua put on a show last week against one of the stingiest secondaries in the NFL, and that makes me feel great about him cashing this prop.
No, the third-year receiver didn't hit the 90-yard mark against the Seattle Seahawks, whose defence ranks third in net yards per pass attempt. But he did dominate for the Rams from a volume standpoint.
- Matthew Stafford completed just 15 passes for 130 yards last week vs. Seattle. Nacua had seven receptions for 75 yards.
- No one else on the Rams had more than two catches or 23 yards.
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After sustaining an injury in Week 6, Nacua's usage has definitely declined. But he was so far above the rest of the Rams' offensive weapons last week — in a daunting matchup — that I think we could see him return to something that more closely resembles his early-season output.
L.A. force-fed Nacua in Weeks 1-5 and the results were superb:
- 12.4 targets/game
- 10.4 catches/game
- 117.6 yards/game
Nacua has zero drops this year and has been targeted on a league-high 36.1% of his routes, per Rotowire.
It's not all swing passes and short slants, though. He's also averaging 84.3 air yards per game (86th percentile).
The Bucs have allows the sixth-most receiving yards per game this season. This should be a good spot for Nacua and L.A.'s air attack to thrive.
Key stat: Excluding the game he left early due to injury, Nacua has 90+ receiving yards in five of eight matchups this season.
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SNF ATS prediction
Egbuka under 71.5 receiving yards (-113): Egbuka's excellent rookie season has him in odds-on position to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
After a few boom weeks earlier in the season, though, his overall production has slowed down.
- First five games: 25 catches, 445 yards, 5 TDs
- Past five games: 20 catches, 272 yards, 1 TD
Egbuka has gone under 71.5 receiving yards in four of his past five games, averaging 54.4 yards in that span.
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The likely return of Godwin, who hasn't played since Week 5, isn't necessarily a bad thing for Egbuka. But it does add another receiving target to the mix that the rookie hasn't had to compete against in recent weeks.
What I'm more focused on is the Rams' defence, which ranks No. 2 in scoring and No. 2 in EPA per play (according to RBSDM.com).
Egbuka has gone udner this yardage total in five of six road games, and this matchup isn't exactly a friendly one for him.
Buccaneers vs. Rams picks made at 2:23 p.m. ET Nov. 21, 2025.
