NBA opening night is rapidly approaching, so let's try to map how this season will play out.
The preseason narrative: San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama enters his third season and appears poised to take a massive leap. Among teams I'm most intrigued by: the on-the-rise Detroit Pistons, and the Dallas Mavericks, who will look to put the Luka Doncic era behind them by ushering in Cooper Flagg.
Check out my favourite NBA futures bets for the 2025-26 season, featuring a Finals pick and a 40-to-1 most improved player bet.
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Best bet: Wembanyama to win MVP (+1,400)
Maybe I'm being hyperbolic, but this feels like buying Bitcoin in 2015.
Wembanyama has a skill set unlike anyone in the NBA. The 7-foot-6 centre averaged 24.3 points and 11.0 rebounds in his sophomore season, where he shot 35.2% from deep on 8.8 attempts a night.
Having that type of 3-point production at that height is downright unfair.
Wemby would have also almost certainly won the defensive player of the year award had his season not been cut short due to blood clots. He averaged 3.7 blocks and 1.2 steals per game.
Assuming he's healthy, I envision a massive leap in production.
-> Bet on Victor Wembanyama to win NBA MVP
San Antonio has done a fantastic job of surrounding him with the talent necessary to contend in a deep Western Conference, which, right or wrong, is top of mind for MVP voters.
De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper make up a formidable backcourt trio, and that should stretch the floor for Wemby.
Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are going to put up gaudy numbers on great teams. But I really don't think Wemby is far off from joining the elite of the elite.
You likely won't see him priced like this to win the MVP before the season ever again.
Best team bets
Pistons over 45.5 wins (-130): The Pistons finally turned a corner last year after a half-decade of tanking, underachieving, and pain.
Detroit won 44 games, qualifying for the playoffs and playing the New York Knicks tough before bowing out in six games in the first round.
The question is: Was that an aberration or a sign of things to come?
I think it's the latter. Head coach J.B. Bickerstaff devised a system to maximize the potential of Detroit's high-draft capital roster.
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- The squad played with dogged intensity, ranking 10th in defensive rating and fifth in rebounding rate.
- The Pistons have room to grow on offence. Three of their top five scorers (Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren) were younger than 25 last year.
Assuming the team continues to buy in on the defensive end, I can see marginal improvements on offence leading to an even better 2025-26 season.
Mavericks to make playoffs (-134): Nico Harrison should be thanking his lucky stars that Dallas lucked backwards into the first overall pick and Cooper Flagg.
And no, it wasn't a conspiracy, because Kyrie Irving had to tear his ACL for the Mavericks to fall outside of the playoff picture and into the draft lottery.
That's partially why we can get these favourable odds, given Irving's uncertain timetable.
But I'm confident the Mavs can tread water with D'Angelo Russell at point guard before Kyrie is back in the mix, likely around the new year.
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Anthony Davis is a top-10 player in the NBA when healthy, and he'll spearhead a bruising front-court trio alongside Flagg and Dereck Lively III.
Making the play-in has become far too easy in this league, but that'll only help Dallas' chances.
NBA Finals future pick
Thunder to win NBA Finals (+200)
This is as square as a pick can get, but if it hits, it hits.
The Thunder are fresh off one of the greatest seasons of all time. They won 68 regular-season games and posted the second-best net rating (+12.8) behind only the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.
And much like that Michael Jordan-led Bulls team, OKC won the NBA Finals.
Gilgeous-Alexander is the best scorer in the league, but the Canadian is just the tip of the iceberg.
Sam Presti's pick-hoarding rebuild strategy has led to players like Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Lu Dort, all of whom were integral pieces of the title run. And all of whom returned for the 2025-26 season.
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The scariest part is that OKC's 2024 first-round pick, Nikola Topic, didn't even play last year. He should add another element to the squad, in addition to two 2025 first-round picks (Thomas Sorber, Nique Clifford).
Depth wins championships, and no team is deeper than the Thunder.
NBA futures long shot prediction
Trey Murphy III to win Most Improved Player (+4,000)
Murphy didn't earn a single Most Improved Player vote last season despite setting career highs in all three major statistical categories:
- 21.2 PPG
- 5.1 RPG
- 3.1 APG
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That's because he only played 53 games, which is below the league minimum of 65 required to qualify for awards.
Is it risky backing a player coming off a torn rotator cuff in his shooting arm to win this award? Sure. But Murphy was trending toward being an elite bucket getter last season, and I think that can continue.
The New Orleans Pelicans traded away Brandon Ingram, meaning Murphy will continue to have a heavy shot volume behind Zion Williamson.
If he can stack up a few more assists and get into 25-5-5 territory, I love his chances of being in the hunt for this award.
NBA futures picks made at 4:30 p.m. ET on 10/17/2025.
