Canada's Felix Auger-Aliassime can punch his ATP semifinals ticket with a win over Alexander Zverev on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: Auger-Aliassime upset Zverev at the U.S. Open in August, and he's an underdog yet again on hardcourt, where he's thrived this season. Before that match, World No. 2 Jannik Sinner aims to stay perfect in the round-robin against winless Ben Shelton.
Check out my top ATP Finals tennis predictions for Nov. 14 below.
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ATP Finals tennis predictions Nov. 14
Best bet: Auger-Aliassime to win (+150)
Auger-Aliassime might be the No. 8 seed, but you could argue he's been the third-best player on the planet in the last three months.
- The Canadian is 23-6 since the National Bank Open. Four of those losses came against Sinner.
- FAA won the European Open in Brussels, reached the semifinals at the U.S. Open and lost the finals at the Rolex Paris Masters. The defeats in New York and Paris both came vs. Sinner.
I'm not going to dock Auger-Aliassime for his record against Sinner. The Italian is practically unbeatable and is clearly a cut above, alongside Carlos Alcaraz.
-> Bet on Canada's Auger-Aliassime at the ATP Finals
Zverev was supposed to be the third head of that monster, but he has fallen flat time and time again.
The German has had a down year by his standards, with zero hardcourt titles to his name and no semifinal appearances at the Grand Slams.
Auger-Aliassime dominated him in Flushing Meadows, winning 4-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-4, and has already flexed his muscles at this tournament with a win over Shelton.
I want to ride with the hot hand at a plus-money price.
Key stat: FAA has won two of his last three hardcourt matches against Zverev.
Sinner vs. Shelton tennis pick
Sinner -4.5 games (-134): This match is meaningless with Sinner already advancing to the final four.
But Sinner isn't one to let his foot off the gas, and he's praised for his relentless play and consistent approaches to all matches, a la Rafael Nadal.
I think this gets ugly for Shelton.
-> Bet on Sinner to beat Shelton
The up-and-coming American has lost seven straight matches against Sinner — all in straight sets. Just two weeks ago, Sinner beat Shelton 6-3, 6-3 in Paris, and back at Wimbledon, he won 7-6, 6-4, 6-4.
The World No. 2 is on a 12-match winning streak, covering this spread nine times. That includes both of his wins at this event over Zverev and FAA.
ATP Finals tennis predictions made at 1 p.m. on 11/13/2025.
